Nickel prices edged lower on Wednesday as the US dollar strengthened against most major currencies, weighed down by a bearish outlook from a major American bank regarding metal prices for the coming year.
In a research note released this month, Goldman Sachs projected that copper prices would remain range-bound between $10,000 and $11,000 per metric ton through 2026–2027, citing a market surplus despite a still-positive long-term outlook for industrial metals.
The bank highlighted three key factors likely to limit copper’s upside momentum:
1. Chinese buyers are expected to reduce purchases if prices exceed $11,000 per ton, as seen in Q2 2024.
2. A buildup in US inventories could swiftly rebalance the market should the London Metal Exchange (LME) price spreads narrow.
3. Overestimation of data center–related demand, which may prove weaker than initially projected.
Goldman: Indonesian producer margins to steer nickel’s direction
Regarding the nickel market, Goldman Sachs said Indonesian producer profit margins must compress further to slow supply growth and counter the ongoing surplus.
The bank forecast nickel prices to decline by around 6%, reaching $14,500 per metric ton by December 2026.
Aluminum market set for surplus, with prices returning to current levels only by 2030
Goldman Sachs also expects a surplus in the aluminum market as Indonesian supply begins ramping up by mid-2026.
The bank projects aluminum prices to hover around $2,350 per ton in Q4 2026, with no return to current price levels expected before 2030.
China to become a net zinc exporter by 2026
Goldman Sachs said China is likely to shift from being a net importer to a net exporter of zinc by 2026, driven by increased domestic production.
“We see higher Chinese output turning the country’s zinc balance from deficit to surplus, while ex-China markets move into deficit. To balance the global market, Chinese producers must be incentivized to export,” the bank wrote.
Cobalt supported by tighter supply and new Congo export quotas
In the cobalt market, Goldman Sachs noted that new export quotas imposed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo — which accounts for about 70% of global supply — are expected to create a market deficit in 2026, supporting prices amid tighter supply conditions.
Lithium prices to remain subdued through 2026 amid persistent surplus
The bank also predicted that lithium prices will remain depressed for longer, averaging $8,900 per ton in 2026, as the ongoing supply glut keeps the market oversupplied.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index rose 0.2% to 98.8 by 15:35 GMT, hitting a session high of 99.01 and a low of 98.6.
As for spot trading, nickel prices fell 0.7% to $15,130 per ton by 15:46 GMT.
