The Japanese yen fell to its weakest level in nine months against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, prompting fresh verbal warnings from Japanese officials in an effort to stem the currency’s decline, while the dollar edged higher ahead of the expected end of the U.S. government shutdown.
During European trading hours, the yen dropped to 154.82 per dollar — its lowest since February — before Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama intervened verbally to slow the slide.
Katayama said it was important for exchange rates to move in a stable manner that reflects economic fundamentals, noting that markets had recently seen “one-sided and rapid movements” in the yen’s value.
Mohamed Al-Sarraf, currency strategist at Danske Bank, commented that “verbal intervention is no longer as powerful as it once was,” adding, “for Japanese authorities to strengthen the yen meaningfully, direct market intervention may be necessary — a possibility within the coming months.”
Since early October, the yen has lost roughly 4.5% of its value, pressured by expectations of increased fiscal spending under new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and by improved global risk appetite amid optimism that the U.S. government shutdown will soon end.
Takaichi said Wednesday she “strongly hopes” the Bank of Japan will pursue a monetary policy that stabilizes inflation around 2%, driven by wage growth rather than higher import and commodity prices.
The yen also hit its weakest level since the euro’s inception, trading at 179.235 against the European currency.
Is the U.S. government reopening soon?
The Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote Wednesday afternoon on a deal to restore funding to federal agencies and end the shutdown that began on October 1.
Ending the shutdown would allow the release of key economic data, helping both investors and the Federal Reserve assess the health of the U.S. economy.
The U.S. dollar edged slightly higher on Wednesday, recovering part of its previous session’s losses, after data from ADP showed private-sector firms shed over 11,000 jobs per week in late October.
The report weighed on the dollar as it reinforced expectations for a potential Fed rate cut in December, though traders still see roughly a two-thirds chance of that outcome amid the ongoing data blackout.
Several Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have suggested that the lack of economic data could lead the central bank to keep rates unchanged at its next meeting.
Mohamed Al-Sarraf of Danske Bank said, “The main driver for the dollar now is what happens at the December Fed meeting,” adding that “while there’s some softness in the labor market, growth remains solid and core inflation is near 3%, so the Fed cannot ease aggressively.”
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance against a basket of major peers, rose 0.1% to 99.58.
The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3121, while the euro slipped 0.1% to $1.1575.
The Australian dollar gained 0.2% to $0.6538, while the New Zealand dollar was little changed at $0.5655.
A senior official at the Reserve Bank of Australia said Wednesday that policymakers are increasingly debating whether the current 3.6% cash rate is sufficiently restrictive to curb inflation, noting that this question “will be critical in shaping the next phase of monetary policy.”
