(Bloomberg) — Uncertainty around tariffs and inflation has hurt US business optimism since Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January, marking a sharp reversal from the buoyant mood among executives after his win in the presidential election, a survey shows.
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Less than half, or 47%, of US business executives polled by the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants said they are confident about the economic outlook for the year ahead, down from 67% of respondents in a survey conducted in December. The findings coincide with recent data showing eroding consumer sentiment and rising inflation expectations.
“There are a lot of warning signs right now for business executives, particularly around inflation, payroll costs and consumer confidence, with tariffs adding another layer of uncertainty,” said Tom Hood, executive vice president for business engagement and growth at the AICPA.
The findings highlight a significant decline in sentiment within the space of a few months, driven by concerns about the effects of Trump’s tariffs and their potential impact on inflation. The relentless aspect of the tariff agenda has overshadowed, for now, Trump’s other more business-friendly plans, including proposed tax cuts for companies and lighter regulation.
In the most recent earnings cycle, companies in the auto sector, retail and other industries reported bleak expectations for the year ahead, with Ford Motor Co. warning of a steep profit decline in 2025 and Walmart Inc., Macy’s Inc. and other consumer-facing businesses forecasting slower growth.
The AICPA conducted its latest survey from Feb. 4 through Feb. 26, prior to this week’s tariff hike on imports from China, new levies on Canada and Mexico and the government’s move on Wednesday to give automakers in Canada and Mexico another month of reprieve. The professional organization polled 305 members working for US companies, including chief executives, chief financial officers and controllers.
Beyond this week’s developments, the US introduced other new levies against China in February, and new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports are set to take effect later this month. Trump also ordered a review of global trade relationships by April, threatening reciprocal tariffs against a raft of other countries.
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