The latest shale oil and gas boom in the United States in the early 21st century had far-reaching geopolitical consequences. Without it, the United States would have become increasingly dependent on imports to meet its energy needs, and prices would likely have risen sharply. In the years leading up to the shale revolution, natural gas prices had already surged, and crude oil had climbed above 100 dollars per barrel.
The following boom in oil and gas production transformed the United States into the world’s largest producer of both commodities. This weakened OPEC’s influence over global oil markets and turned the country into the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
However, shale oil and gas resources are not confined to the United States. Maps from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that such reserves are spread widely across the globe. As the American shale revolution matures and begins to plateau, energy markets are increasingly evaluating which other countries might follow the U.S. path. Several nations are positioning themselves for potential shale booms that could reshape global energy security, geopolitical influence, and investment prospects.
Argentina: The Next Major Contender
Vaca Muerta, which until recently was more a promise than a producer, is now showing genuine commercial strength. Located in the Neuquén Basin in northern Patagonia, it holds an estimated 16 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil and 308 trillion cubic feet of gas, according to the EIA. In 2024, production from the basin rose by 27 percent for oil and 23 percent for gas compared to the previous year.
Major companies including YPF, Chevron, and Shell are deeply involved in its development. Chevron describes Vaca Muerta as one of the largest unconventional reserves in the world and has pledged to raise its production to 30,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025.
Argentina still faces traditional shale challenges such as regulatory uncertainty, high well costs, water logistics, and infrastructure bottlenecks. Yet the momentum is clear. In short, Vaca Muerta stands as the first non-U.S. shale basin to demonstrate credible scale and sustained investment potential.
China: The Silent Giant with Massive Potential
China holds the world’s largest technically recoverable shale gas reserves, concentrated in the Sichuan Basin. Progress has been slow due to complex geology, difficult terrain, and limited water availability. However, China is accelerating development through digital drilling, horizontal wells, and advanced hydraulic fracturing.
If successful, this could reshape the LNG market in Asia and reduce China’s dependence on coal. While China’s shale development may not attract as much attention as Argentina’s oil surge, its significance lies in its scale and potential to transform domestic energy systems, ripple through global gas trade, and strengthen China’s energy independence.
Saudi Arabia: Shale as a Strategic Play
Saudi Arabia’s focus is shifting toward unconventional gas, led by Saudi Aramco’s Jafurah Basin, described as the “jewel of our unconventional gas program.” The field is estimated to contain around 229 trillion cubic feet of raw gas and 75 billion barrels of condensates in place. The company plans to begin initial production in 2025, targeting sales of up to 2 billion cubic feet per day by 2030.
This project is significant because Saudi Arabia aims to replace oil with gas in domestic power generation and industry. That shift would free up more crude for export while reducing the carbon intensity of its economy. From an investment perspective, Jafurah illustrates how shale—particularly gas-rich shale—is evolving into strategic energy infrastructure rather than a mere exploration trend.
Other Promising Candidates
Beyond these three countries, others also deserve attention.
Russia holds vast shale oil and gas potential, second only to the United States by some estimates, but development remains limited. With abundant low-cost conventional reserves and Western sanctions restricting access to advanced drilling technology, there is little incentive for major shale investment.
Canada, particularly in Alberta and British Columbia, continues to invest in unconventional resources but at a slower pace.
Australia has promising geology in basins such as Cooper and Canning but faces environmental and regulatory challenges.
Mexico has large shale reserves but is hindered by regulatory complexity and infrastructure gaps.
Colombia is progressing with pilot projects in the Magdalena Valley, where state oil company Ecopetrol is exploring shale opportunities despite social and legal barriers.
India is assessing shale prospects in the Cambay and Krishna-Godavari basins, though population density and land-use issues pose major obstacles.
The United Arab Emirates is investing in unconventional gas projects in the Al Dhafra region, aiming for gas self-sufficiency by 2030.
South Africa continues to study the vast Karoo Basin, but environmental concerns and water scarcity remain major constraints.
The United Kingdom has rich shale gas resources in the Bowland Basin, but public opposition and a government moratorium have frozen activity.
Key Factors for Investors
While the United States remains the global benchmark for shale efficiency and scale, these emerging players offer unique opportunities. As more countries advance their shale programs, investors should monitor several critical areas:
Infrastructure development, including pipelines, export terminals, rig deployment, and logistics.
Export capability, covering LNG terminals, oil export pipelines, and the geopolitical leverage of long-term offtake contracts.
Domestic policy stability, including regulatory consistency, taxation systems, water access, and environmental permitting.
State-backed partnerships, since many of these projects involve national oil companies, sovereign wealth funds, or government-linked infrastructure entities rather than purely private investors.
Ultimately, the next chapter of the shale story may unfold far beyond North America, with Argentina, China, and Saudi Arabia leading a new generation of unconventional energy powers.
