Until April last year, Imran Bozdar, a cotton grower from Sanghar, had brought 100 per cent of his land — all 150 acres — under cotton cultivation. This is not the case, however, this year. He could sow 60 acres out of total farmland so far, and the month of May has already started.
Mr Bozdar is part of a 15-member task force, formed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in March this year, to submit a report in 30 days on the countywide dwindling of cotton so that this decline could be arrested through policy initiatives. Unfortunately, this is something eluding growers.
“Delay in sowing is all because of water unavailability at my agricultural land,” Mr Bozdar said. Likewise, Nadeem Shah, another progressive farmer from lower Sindh’s Matiari district, was also only able to sow cotton on 30 acres of his land out of 150 acres till the start of May. “Sowing on 80pc of total cotton acreage was done last year as water was available. We got water flows after 21 days due to rotational irrigation supplies,” he said.
Sanghar and Matiari are the districts located on the left bank of the Indus River. The left bank areas of the river traditionally see cotton cultivation. Rice is, however, legally banned to avoid waterlogging in the area, as rice is a water-guzzling crop. Sindh’s farmers have limited choices if they want to give up cotton sowing and opt for other crops. Their Punjab counterparts have switched over to maize, corn or rice in the last several years.
Cotton sowing faces rising stress in lower riparian regions of the country due to severe water shortages and little government intervention
Water shortage in left bank areas, especially at the time of early Kharif sowing, remained severe due to unprecedented water shortage in the river system, affecting lower riparian Sindh the most. Sindh’s barrages reported a 37pc shortage until the end of April. Other factors were also contributing towards a decline in cotton production. The water shortage is likely to worsen in May, according to barrage officials, because water demand would increase in rice-growing areas fed by Guddu, Sukkur and Kotri barrages, as well.
By the end of April 2025, 26.71pc (168,000 hectares) of the cotton sowing target (630,000 hectares) was achieved in Sindh. When compared with the corresponding period in 2024, it was 54pc of the 640,000-hectare target, showing a significant acreage-wise drop in 2025. The time for early sowing is already over. Now, seasonal sowing has begun, and farmers remain apprehensive of the survival of early sown cotton due to constrained irrigation supplies.
Water supply is crucial for crops, and for cotton, it is specially critical given its sensitive nature and because the crop has been facing serious challenges for the last 15 years in Sindh. Cotton’s revival has become a different ballgame for farmers and the government. “Cotton, being a sensitive crop, remains vulnerable to climate change factors and water shortages besides pest attacks; therefore, farmers’ worries are understandable. All these factors have a snowball effect when seen in the government’s overall policy paradigm,” says Sindh Abadgar Board President Mahmood Nawaz Shah.
The steady decline in cotton production has been evident. Over the last decade, Sindh has also witnessed growth of the sugar industry in cotton-producing areas, like the Ghotki district, which now houses five sugar mills alone, clearly indicating encroachment in the otherwise rich cotton-growing districts.
Initial reports from cotton sowing areas about below-par cotton cultivation have worried ginners, too. They keep their fingers crossed about the overall cotton acreage this year, considering the fact that the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) reported a 34pc decline in countrywide cotton production in 2024 (5.2 million bales) when compared with 2023 (8.5m bales), according to PCGA chairman Dr Jasso Mal; the PCGA had warned that 6.53m bales would have to be imported this February.
Sindh, on its part, struggles after having produced 4.2m bales in 2009; a repeat of such a performance looks like a distant dream for growers and the government. A production target of 4m bales has been missed so far. It did look achievable only in 2023, when 3.8m bales were produced in Sindh, according to the agriculture department’s figures.
Dr Mal describes the government’s policies dealing with cotton as a major factor for decline. According to him, the domestic cotton industry faces a crisis for want of supporting policies that facilitate domestic industry over cotton imports. “The textile industry is importing duty-free yarn as there is no levy on it, whereas 18pc sales tax is levied on us [ginners]. Such disparity prevents us from performing well,” he said.
He doesn’t see cotton growers getting an adequate price for 40kg of cotton in the year 2025. Last year, ginners paid Rs8,000-9,000 per 40kg. Dr Mal’s fears are that this year cotton producers would be earning hardly Rs Rs5,000-Rs6,000 per 40kg on average at the end of the season. “An 18pc tax on oil and oilcake achieved out of seed cotton’s residue was there. This is to be recovered from buyers as the industry’s cost of production is to be met,” he said.
Nadeem Shah agreed with Dr Mal, saying the ginning industry was under severe pressure. “Their stocks are dying. 18pc sales tax is to be recovered indirectly from cotton producers, like me, as ginners will pass on this burden to growers by paying them a lower price. Where is this sales tax collection going to come from otherwise?” he asks.
Cotton producers have their own axe to grind. Their increasing cost of production, including fuel, has been a serious issue. They find cotton rates from ginners inadequate; therefore, they face a financial crunch, and, according to Mr Bozdar, the cost of production — calculated by the prime minister’s task force in Sindh — was Rs6,700 per 40kg. “Averagely, we got Rs7,000 to Rs8,000 per 40kg last year from ginners,” he informs.
Being a tail-end water user or lower riparian in the Indus Basin Irrigation System, water flow’s timely availability remained a huge task. Sindh’s cotton producers cry for irrigation water soon after seeds are sown.
Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, May 5th, 2025
