BEIJING: Chicago soybean futures rose on Monday, but hovered near its lowest level this year hit in the previous session, after China announced an additional 34% tariff on all US goods, with soybeans expected to take the biggest hit.
The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) gained 0.84% to $9.85 a bushel as of 0127 GMT.
The contract hit $9.7 on Friday, its lowest level since December 20.
In China, the most-active soymeal contract rose more than 2% – its biggest daily jump in more than two months.
Beijing’s move, in response to US reciprocal tariffs, adds to the 10-15% duties already levied on roughly $21 billion worth of agricultural trade in early March.
Analysts warn the new measures could cripple US agricultural exports to China, particularly soybeans, boosting Brazil’s market share.
“The new tariffs will likely pressure US soybean exports while having limited immediate impact on China’s domestic supply,” said Liu Jinlu, an agricultural researcher at Guoyuan Futures.
China typically imports more soybeans from Brazil at this time of year and shifts to the US during its harvest season starting late summer.
Wan Chengzhi from Capital Jingdu Futures said that prolonged tariffs into the US harvest season could further disrupt trade flows.
Brazilian farmers have already harvested 85.83% of the 2024/2025 soybean crop, compared to 79.36% at the same time last season, according to Patria Agronegocios.
Corn slid 0.22% to $4.59 a bushel while wheat added 0.43% to $5.31 a bushel, after three straight sessions of losses.
Soy down 22-25 cents, corn down 4-5 cents, wheat down 9-10 cents
Corn exports remained unaffected, as China hasn’t been a key buyer in recent months, and Mexico – the top US corn buyer – was exempted from the reciprocal tariffs.
China’s counter-tariffs will likely benefit producers from other countries, with Australia potentially filling some supply gaps, said Andrew Whitelaw at agricultural consultants Episode 3.
“The concerning thing will be if there are further increases by Trump … Tariff wars have no winners,” Whitelaw added. Meanwhile, concerns are growing over US agricultural exports to other key markets, like Europe and Asian nations beyond China.
