Kerry Brown is professor of Chinese studies at King’s College, London, whose research focuses on Chinese elite politics and its diplomatic strategies. Brown lived in the autonomous region of Inner Mongolia between 1994 and 1996 and worked as a British diplomat in Beijing from 1998 to 2005 and served as the first secretary in Beijing from 2000 to 2003.
We want to start with the latest tariff situation between China and the US. In your view, how might this affect their respective economies as well as the broader global economy? As the United States continues to exert maximum pressure on China, how should China respond strategically?
I think China was expecting this, and in many ways set in place some degree of diversification and policy response to what Trump is doing. It has markets and supplies now in the Global South and has been working on these since the start of the pandemic.
China has also been working hard on addressing its technology deficit with the US, expanding its [research and development] expenditure by 10 per cent at the National People’s Congress earlier this year, and now working on trying to decouple as far as possible from the US.
Following up with your point on decoupling. The call for US-China decoupling began during Donald Trump’s first term. Given the recent developments, would you say the two countries are now entering a phase of full decoupling? Is China at risk of becoming increasingly isolated and having to navigate this complex global environment on its own? Would you consider this period one of the darkest moments for China in terms of global trade?
I think that for the Trump administration, the Chinese must be stunned by the lack of caution and understanding that he has of how China negotiates. I cannot think of a worse tactic than threatening and presenting China with zero-sum options. This is a country, after all, with such a strong narrative in its head of never again being victimised and bullied, that everything Trump is doing is only likely to make China stand its ground even more.
