People walk outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., April 8, 2025.
Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters
My top 10 things to watch Wednesday, April 30
1. The S&P 500 is tracking for a sharply lower open this morning. The index is riding a six-day win streak and ended yesterday less than 2% below its April 2 close, the day President Donald Trump unveiled his “reciprocal” tariffs. With one day left in April, the S&P 500 is down nearly 1% for the month.
2. The U.S. economy contracted 0.3% in the first quarter versus expectations of a 0.4% expansion, according to the advance GDP estimate from the government. The numbers covering the first months of Trump’s second presidency fueled concerns about a recession.
3. Private payroll growth in April totaled just 62,000, per ADP, roughly half of what economists had expected. U.S. companies pulled back hiring in the uncertain economic environment. The government’s official jobs report is out Friday.
4. It’s a blockbuster night for tech earnings. Artificial intelligence spending will be a major theme for Club names Meta Platforms and Microsoft when they report. For Meta, it’s also digital ads. At Microsoft, it’s also cloud.
5. Starbucks shares have collapsed after earnings, down more than 9% this morning. Can this great brand be salvaged by anyone? I’m interviewing CEO Brian Niccol about his turnaround plan this morning on CNBC. Goldman downgraded the Club stock to hold from buy, saying this is now a show-me story.
6. Wells Fargo and Barclays cut their Brinker price targets but kept their hold-equivalent ratings. Shares of the Chill’s and Maggiano’s owner sank 14% yesterday as the magnitude of earnings beats shrinks. In causal dining, we own Texas Roadhouse.
7. Barclays and Loop Capital reduce their price target on Club name Apple ahead of tomorrow night’s earnings. The Barclays analysts think the second half of the year will be worse for the iPhone maker.
8. Piper Sandler is standing by its overweight buy rating on Club name Bristol Myers Squibb and upped its price target by $1 to $66. We’re giving the drugmaker’s management some patience, but we need to see new schizophrenia drug Cobenfy deliver on future trials.
9. Wells Fargo lifted its price target on Club name Honeywell to $225 per share after earnings but kept its hold-equivalent rating. TD Cowen went to $230 and kept its buy rating. Analysts noted that tariff pressures are manageable, and stock buybacks were ratcheted up.
10. Caterpillar missed on earnings and revenue for the first quarter. Started to feel the impact of tariffs. Q2 guide beat. Today is Jim Umpleby’s last day at CEO. He increased profit sixfold in his eight years.
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