A surprise surge of youth voters has upended the Philippines’ midterm elections, delivering what analysts have described as a political “thrashing” for President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr and complicating the path forward for his administration.
With only five of Marcos Jnr’s remaining 10 Senate candidates poised to win seats – after two of the original 12 switched allegiances at the last minute – observers say the eventual results could weaken his influence in Congress, undermine efforts to convict Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio in an impending impeachment trial, and reshape the battlefield for the 2028 presidential race.
“This is probably one of the most dramatic late election developments I have ever seen, since virtually all the latest surveys failed to predict this outcome,” said Barry Gutierrez, a former lawmaker and spokesman for ex-vice-president Leni Robredo.
Historian Manolo Quezon described the outcome so far as “the fourth worst” midterm showing for a sitting president since 1938. Although the vote appears evenly split – with five candidates each from the Marcos and Duterte factions projected to take Senate seats – the results so far suggest a wider public disaffection with the president.
The tallies are from partial, unofficial results obtained from the “central server” controlled by the Commission on Elections (Comelec), which has said final confirmation of the winners would be due by the weekend.
Among the likely victors personally endorsed by Duterte-Carpio are returning senators Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa and Imee Marcos, as well as Rodante Marcoleta – a sitting congressman – and Congresswoman Camille Villar. The vice-president’s endorsement was seen as crucial to their success.
Villar and Imee Marcos, the president’s sister, had initially appeared on Marcos Jnr’s official slate but switched allegiance to Duterte-Carpio’s side shortly before the election.
