• GDP expands at 2.6pc, per capita income sees modest rise to $1,824
• Economy size swells to $411bn, agriculture grows just 0.56pc and LSM contracts 1.5pc
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita income increased in dollar terms at a modest pace in 2024-25, reflecting a sustained recovery in the country’s overall output compared to the previous year, the government said on Tuesday.
It was announced on Tuesday that the country’s economy is expected to grow by 2.68 per cent in the current fiscal year, a revision from earlier projections of 3.6pc, suggesting that Pakistan will fall short of its GDP target.
The leading global financial institutions’ estimates also show that Pakistan’s economy is expected to grow between 2.6 and 2.8pc in FY25, a slower-than-expected recovery with challenges in agriculture, industrial output, and external financing weighing on economic momentum. The lenders have already revised downward their earlier GDP projections for Pakistan.
The IMF revised the growth forecast to 2.6pc, citing weaker economic performance. The World Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimate a slightly higher growth rate of 2.8pc, reflecting cautious optimism.
The 113th National Accounts Committee (NAC) meeting, chaired by Planning Commission Secretary Awais Manzur Sumra, approved revised GDP growth rates for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of FY25, along with final figures for FY23 and revised estimates for FY24. The provisional GDP growth for FY25 stands at 2.68pc compared to 2.51pc in FY24, a marginal increase.
The size of the economy went up to $410.96 billion in FY25 from $371.66bn in FY24, mainly driven by growth in the services sector, followed by industry and livestock. Higher public and private sector investments, stable exchange rates, moderating inflation, and rising per capita income supported growth.
The per capita income slightly increased to $1,824 in FY25 from $1,680 in FY24. However, it was $1,551 in FY23, $1,766 in FY22 and $1,677 in FY21. This suggests the deterioration of the standard of living and well-being of almost all segments of society with no tangible increase in personal incomes.
It may lead to decreased disposable income, limiting individuals’ ability to afford goods and services, save, or invest.
Agriculture sector
The agriculture sector will post a modest growth of 0.56pc in FY25. This indicates that the agriculture sector faced setbacks, with important crops contracting by 13.49pc in FY25 compared to a healthy increase in important crops last year.
Important crops dipped due to a decline of 8.91pc in wheat production this year. The provincial crop reporting services estimated that wheat production may fall to 28.98 million tonnes from 31.81m tonnes last year. Maize production fell 15.4pc to 8.24m tonnes from 9.74m tonnes last year, rice production fell 1.38pc to 9.72m tonnes, from 9.86m tonnes, sugarcane by 3.88pc to 84.24m tonnes from 87.64m tonnes and a 30.7pc in cotton production to 7.08m bales from 10.22m bales last year.
Despite a 16.6pc reduction in the production of grams, other crops posted a provisional growth of 4.78pc. The production of potatoes saw an increase of 11.5pc to 9.40m tonnes from 8.43m tonnes, onion by 15.9pc from 2.30 to 2.67m tonnes, mango by 26.7pc from 2.09 to 2.65m tonnes and sesame by 44.7pc from 0.30 to 0.44m tonnes. While cotton ginning and miscellaneous components declined by 19.03pc, livestock, forestry and fishing posted provisional growth rates of 4.72pc, 3.03pc and 1.42pc.
Industrial sector
The industry provisionally demonstrated a growth of 4.77pc in 2024-25. Despite a 2.84pc rise in coal production, the mining and quarrying sector experienced a contraction of 3.38pc. This decline is attributed to lower production of natural gas, which fell by 7.05pc, crude oil, down by 14.72pc, and other minerals.
The Large-Scale Manufacturing, as indicated by the Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM) for the first nine months of FY25, experienced a decline of 1.53pc, reflecting a mixed trend in the production across different groups. The electricity, gas and water supply sector witnessed a notable growth of 28.88pc, primarily attributed to the low-base effect from FY24. The construction sector recorded a rise of 6.61pc, which was attributed to heightened expenditures on construction-related activities by both the private sector and the general government.
Services industry
The services sector also grew 2.91pc in 2024-25, bolstered by favourable contributions from all its components. The wholesale and retail trade sector experienced a slight increase of 0.14pc, which was attributed to a deceleration in output growth within the agriculture and manufacturing industries.
The transport and storage sector has seen a rise of 2.20pc, which is attributed to the growth in output across water, air, and road transport. The information and communication sector grew 6.48pc driven by a notable increase of 24pc in the output of computer programming and consultancy activities.
Published in Dawn, May 21st, 2025
