Close Menu
World Economist – Global Markets, Finance & Economic Insights
  • Home
  • Economist Impact
    • Economist Intelligence
    • Finance & Economics
  • Business
  • Asia
  • China
  • Europe
  • Economy
  • USA
    • Middle East & Africa
    • Highlights
  • This week
  • World Economy
    • World News
What's Hot

All hail the equity vigilantes

July 5, 2025

Taiwan caught in WWII revisionist dilemma as Lai reshapes wartime legacy

July 5, 2025

What more can Japan give? Tokyo braces for Trump’s tariffs as talks hit deadlock

July 5, 2025
Facebook X (Twitter) Instagram
Saturday, July 5
Facebook X (Twitter) Instagram
World Economist – Global Markets, Finance & Economic Insights
  • Home
  • Economist Impact
    • Economist Intelligence
    • Finance & Economics
  • Business
  • Asia
  • China
  • Europe
  • Economy
  • USA
    • Middle East & Africa
    • Highlights
  • This week
  • World Economy
    • World News
World Economist – Global Markets, Finance & Economic Insights
Home » Analysts scratching their heads over Israel-Iran conflict
World News

Analysts scratching their heads over Israel-Iran conflict

adminBy adminJune 18, 2025No Comments4 Mins Read
Share Facebook Twitter Pinterest Copy Link LinkedIn Tumblr Email VKontakte Telegram
Share
Facebook Twitter Pinterest Email Copy Link
Post Views: 19


Smoke billows in the distance from an oil refinery following an Israeli strike on the Iranian capital Tehran on June 17, 2025.

Atta Kenare | Afp | Getty Images

Analysts are struggling to predict the extent to which Israel and Iran’s escalating conflict could influence oil prices.

Israel’s surprise attack on Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure on Friday has been followed by five days of spiraling warfare between the regional foes.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday called for an “unconditional surrender” from Tehran, warning Washington’s patience was wearing thin.

Energy markets are weighing the likelihood of direct U.S. involvement in the conflict, as well as the potential for major supply disruptions — particularly worst-case scenarios, such as Iran blocking the highly strategic Strait of Hormuz that links the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.

John Evans, an analyst at oil broker PVM, said Wednesday that a “blanket of unease” had descended upon oil markets in recent days.

“Our market is settling into a world where missile exchanges are commonplace but the cynicism of it being normal has yet to set in because of how easily the situation could escalate,” Evans said in a research note.

Iran’s ongoing retaliatory attacks with ballistic missiles towards Israel are seen from Tel Aviv, Israel on June 17, 2025. Iran has resumed ballistic missile operations in response to Israeli attacks.

Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images

Israel’s Bazan oil refinery complex sustained damage from an Iranian attack earlier this week, while an Israeli airstrike at the South Pars field, the world’s largest gas field, prompted Tehran to partially suspend production. The South Pars gas field is shared between Iran and Qatar.

“The situation is as fluid as the underlying commodity it mostly affects and while there is a fraternal ‘your guess is [as] good as mine’ in future price divination, positioning will continue to be at least defensively long,” PVM’s Evans said.

The chief executives of oil companies of TotalEnergies, Shell, and EnQuest told CNBC on Tuesday that further attacks on critical energy infrastructure could have serious consequences for global supply and prices.

‘It is a roulette’

Oil prices, which have jumped in recent days, were trading in mixed territory on Wednesday.

International benchmark Brent crude futures with August delivery stood little changed at $76.43 per barrel at 12:48 p.m. London time. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with July delivery, meanwhile, traded flat at $74.86 per barrel.

Per Lekander, founder of investment management firm Clean Energy Transition, described the situation for oil markets ahead of Israel’s attack on Iran last week as “bad,” given plentiful supply growth from OPEC and non-OPEC producers and soft demand.

“I was increasingly convinced we were heading for a 2014/2020 reset lower to $30-50 to get capex down and start a new cycle. In fact, the current conflict makes that outcome even more likely when [the] conflict is over as producers are now producing and hedging as much as they can,” Lekander said in a note.

“While this is going on it is a roulette. We have a $10 [per barrel] risk premium in the price which is fair given that there clearly are some interruptions (mainly Iran exports and some lower tanker loadings),” he added.

What next for oil prices?

Looking ahead, Stephen Schork, editor of The Schork Report, on Wednesday said that a significant escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict could push oil prices substantially higher.

“We’re kind of stabilizing right now. I think we’re waiting for that next headline to come out and really, I think that anyone who does not think oil could go higher, I really think they are trading on hope and not reality,” Schork told CNBC’s “Access Middle East.”

The Schork Report flags risk of oil prices hitting as much as $123 per barrel

“We are now facing the biggest threat to the oil markets since Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 and perhaps even greater than the 1974 Arab oil embargo,” he added.

Schork said there was a roughly 5% chance of oil prices climbing to above $103 per barrel within the next five weeks, with much longer odds of crude soaring as high as $160 per barrel by the end of summer, if flows out of the Persian Gulf are seriously disrupted.



Source link

Share. Facebook Twitter Pinterest LinkedIn Tumblr Email Telegram Copy Link
admin
  • Website

Related Posts

World News

What the U.S.-Vietnam trade deal tells us about the future of tariffs

July 3, 2025
World News

Peaked, paused, and poised? India’s market reboot at half-time

July 3, 2025
World News

Iran-Israel war sparks fresh interest in India’s defense sector

June 26, 2025
World News

Strait of Hormuz GPS jamming major security issue, tanker CEO says

June 24, 2025
World News

Many insurance firms won’t cover US, Israeli-linked ships at any price

June 24, 2025
World News

Watch Fed Chair Powell testify live on interest rate policy before House committee

June 24, 2025
Add A Comment
Leave A Reply Cancel Reply

Editors Picks

PDWP approves nine uplift schemes worth over Rs52bn – Business & Finance

July 5, 2025

IP rights for SMEs: SMEDA, IPO agree to undertake joint awareness drive – Business & Finance

July 5, 2025

Mian Zahid slams increase in oil and gas prices – Business & Finance

July 5, 2025

Weekly SPI inflation up 0.73pc – Business & Finance

July 5, 2025
Latest Posts

PSX hits all-time high as proposed ‘neutral-to-positive’ budget well-received by investors – Business

June 11, 2025

Sindh govt to allocate funds for EV taxis, scooters in provincial budget: minister – Pakistan

June 11, 2025

US, China reach deal to ease export curbs, keep tariff truce alive – World

June 11, 2025

Subscribe to News

Subscribe to our newsletter and never miss our latest news

Subscribe my Newsletter for New Posts & tips Let's stay updated!

Recent Posts

  • All hail the equity vigilantes
  • Taiwan caught in WWII revisionist dilemma as Lai reshapes wartime legacy
  • What more can Japan give? Tokyo braces for Trump’s tariffs as talks hit deadlock
  • Chinese ambassador’s ‘grandstanding’ advice for Australia raises eyebrows
  • South Korea, Japan step up as US targets China’s shipbuilding industry – can they succeed?

Recent Comments

No comments to show.

Welcome to World-Economist.com, your trusted source for in-depth analysis, expert insights, and the latest news on global finance and economics. Our mission is to provide readers with accurate, data-driven reports that shape the understanding of economic trends worldwide.

Latest Posts

All hail the equity vigilantes

July 5, 2025

Taiwan caught in WWII revisionist dilemma as Lai reshapes wartime legacy

July 5, 2025

What more can Japan give? Tokyo braces for Trump’s tariffs as talks hit deadlock

July 5, 2025

Subscribe to Updates

Subscribe to our newsletter and never miss our latest news

Subscribe my Newsletter for New Posts & tips Let's stay updated!

Archives

  • July 2025
  • June 2025
  • May 2025
  • April 2025
  • March 2025
  • February 2025
  • January 2025
  • December 2024
  • June 2024
  • October 2022
  • March 2022
  • July 2021
  • February 2021
  • January 2021
  • November 2019
  • April 2011
  • January 2011
  • December 2007
  • July 2007

Categories

  • AI & Tech
  • Asia
  • Banking
  • Business
  • Business
  • China
  • Climate
  • Computing
  • Economist Impact
  • Economist Intelligence
  • Economy
  • Editor's Choice
  • Europe
  • Europe
  • Featured
  • Featured Business
  • Featured Climate
  • Featured Health
  • Featured Science & Tech
  • Featured Travel
  • Finance & Economics
  • Health
  • Highlights
  • Markets
  • Middle East
  • Middle East & Africa
  • Middle East News
  • Most Viewed News
  • News Highlights
  • Other News
  • Politics
  • Russia
  • Science
  • Science & Tech
  • Social
  • Space Science
  • Sports
  • Sports Roundup
  • Tech
  • This week
  • Top Featured
  • Travel
  • Trending Posts
  • Ukraine Conflict
  • Uncategorized
  • US Politics
  • USA
  • World
  • World & Politics
  • World Economy
  • World News
© 2025 world-economist. Designed by world-economist.
  • Home
  • About Us
  • Advertise With Us
  • Contact Us
  • DMCA
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions

Type above and press Enter to search. Press Esc to cancel.