Iran may look to China for weapons support amid conflicts with the US and Israel, but Beijing will remain cautious, considering strained economic ties with Tehran and its broader interest in balancing ties with Israel and other Western-aligned states in the region, according to a veteran Chinese expert on the Middle East.
In an exclusive interview with the South China Morning Post, Pan Guang, a Chinese scholar of Jewish and Middle East studies, said the conflict between Iran and Israel was unlikely to spiral into a broader war, but tit-for-tat retaliation could continue as Tehran pushes ahead with its nuclear programme, which is believed to persist despite US strikes.
Tensions escalated after Israel launched strikes on Iran on June 13. The US joined days later, targeting three of Iran’s nuclear facilities – marking the most significant Western military action against the Islamic Republic since 1979. Iran retaliated by attacking a US military base in Qatar and striking Israel’s strategic port city of Haifa, home to Chinese projects under the Belt and Road Initiative.
US President Donald Trump brokered a ceasefire between Iran and Israel this week, which has largely held despite initial violations. However, prospects for a durable truce appear dim, as Iran’s core nuclear capabilities are believed to remain intact and Israel remains determined to neutralise what it sees as an existential threat.
Beijing, a close partner of Tehran, is being closely watched as the conflict unfolds. On Thursday, Iranian Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh joined nine of his counterparts at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s defence ministers’ meeting in Qingdao, China, where he called for a bigger Chinese role in easing the conflict.
Pan said Iran might seek Chinese weapons in light of its escalating tensions with Israel, drawing lessons from Pakistan’s recent conflict with India.
