18 July 2025, Bremen, Bremerhaven: Containers are handled at the overseas port.
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A tariff simulator shows a dramatic drop in global exports to the U.S. as a result of President Donald Trump new trade deal with the European Union.
On Sunday, Trump announced a trade deal with the EU, following discussions with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Trump said that the deal imposes a 15% tariff on most European goods to the U.S., including cars.
According to the Tariff Simulator by the online data visualization and distribution platform, The Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), the forecasted global exports to the U.S. in 2027 are expected to drop by more than 46% compared to the average of the last three years, or $2.68 trillion. The forecasted U.S. exports to the world in 2027 are expected to increase by 12% compared to the average of the last three years, or $1.59 trillion.
The forecast builds on an extended gravity model designed to anticipate how trade may be reconfigured in response to the announced trade deal between the US and the EU alone. This forecast does not include the impact of all the broad tariff increases set to be imposed on Aug. 1.
“While the U.S. is imposing tariffs on the world, the world is not imposing tariffs on each other,” explained Cesar Hidalgo, economics professor at the Toulouse School of Economics, director for the Center of Collective Learning, and founder of Datawheel, which built the OEC Tariff Simulator.
“The point here is that countries will have a natural tendency to rewire their trade relationships away from the U.S. in many of these scenarios, he added. “This is true for most countries, except for Mexico and Canada, which are too integrated with the United States and are unable to rewire as quickly as less integrated countries.”
Hidalgo explained the tariff impact using Germany as an example, “In the early 2025 scenario where there were no new tariffs, exports from Germany to the US were forecasted to go from $133B (2023) to $155B in 2027. With the 15% tariff framework, exports from Germany to the US are forecasted now to go up from $133B 2023 to $149B 2027,” said Hidalgo. “Exports are down with respect to what we would have expected if tariffs would have remained the same as they were on January 1st of 2025.”
Under the 15% tariff scenario projected by the Tariff Simulator, the U.S. will import more from UK ($22.5 billion), France ($10.2 billion), and Spain ($5.65 billion) and less from China (-$485 billion), Canada (-$300 billion), and Mexico (-238 billion).
As a result of the decrease in Chinese exports to the U.S. under this scenario, China is expected to import more from Russia ($70 billion), Vietnam ($34.4 billion), and Saudi Arabia ($28 billion) than the U.S.
Chinese imports from the U.S. are expected to drop by $101 billion.
Logistics experts have warned for months that even with tariff rates at lower rates than the original “reciprocal” rates announced in April, the products are still expensive.
The layering of the tariffs will make many products more expensive to import and companies will forego shipments. Retail executives say the result would be a lack of product diversity on U.S. shelves, something American consumers have grown accustomed to.
Andrew Abbott, CEO of niche ocean carrier Atlantic Container Line, says the resolution of the tariff levels will be the deciding factor for some European shippers.
“I have seen some ocean bookings of high-value products (construction equipment, agricultural equipment, aerospace, transformers, etc.) have put all bookings on hold,” said Abbott.
“It all depends on the tariff rate. For example, a U.S. customer buying a $300,000 piece of machinery could potentially have $90,000 in tariffs assessed on it, so this is why some companies are waiting until a tariff rate is definitively set,” he said. “Companies bringing in low-valued items, on the other hand, are continuing to order product.”
Companies Most Exposed
Based on trade data compiled and analyzed by the OEC, the bills of lading — the receipts for the containers detailing the product and company information — show IKEA is the top U.S. company importing from the EU at 28%. Southern Glazer’s Wine and Spirits was next at 9%, followed by Continental Tire (4%), Bosch (4%), Dole Food Co. (3%), and Diageo (2.3%) as the top importers.
Examining the top EU exports to the U.S. by product category reveals that furniture leads the list at 11%, followed by rubber tires at 7%, bedspreads at 6%, and wine at 5%.
