Copper prices fell during Monday’s trading amid a rise in the US dollar against most major currencies, despite the trade agreement between the United States and the European Union.
The agreement, announced on Sunday, stipulates the imposition of a 15% tariff on most European goods instead of 30%. US President Donald Trump also indicated that the deal includes a commitment from the European Union to purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products over the coming years.
Senior officials from the United States and China are scheduled to meet in Stockholm today, Monday, in an attempt to extend the trade truce before the August 12 deadline.
Separately, the increase in exports to China contributed to the East African Community (EAC) achieving its first-ever trade surplus with the rest of the world during the first quarter ending in March 2025, in a sign of a potential shift in the region’s stance on global trade.
The bloc, composed of eight member states, recorded a joint trade surplus of $840 million with its global trading partners, the first positive balance in its modern history, largely due to the sharp rise in exports to China, the group’s largest trading partner.
This shift may be partly due to the escalation of the US–China trade war, which some economists say could prompt Beijing to diversify its sources of essential commodities such as metals and agricultural products.
According to data from the East African Community Secretariat, the group’s member states exported goods worth a total of $17.7 billion to the rest of the world during the three-month period, an increase of 47 percent compared to $12 billion during the same period last year.
In contrast, imports from countries outside the bloc did not exceed the value of exports, despite recording a 5 percent increase to $16.8 billion in March, compared to $16.1 billion a year earlier.
As a result, there was a net inflow of foreign currency into the region, which eased pressure on the foreign exchange market and helped stabilize East African currencies, which have long suffered from sharp fluctuations due to global economic shocks over the past five years.
The recession caused by Trump’s tariffs
This development comes in the wake of the steep tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on imports from several African countries, whose implementation has been suspended until at least August 1. Economists interpret the sudden rise in exports as a preemptive move to avoid the return of these tariffs.
Phyllis Papadavid, an economist and senior researcher at the Overseas Development Institute in London, said: “The fact that the surplus is driven by growth in exports is extremely positive. Some exporters may have accelerated shipments in anticipation of tariff imposition.”
In fact, exports to the United States jumped by 35 percent, equivalent to $73 million, reaching $280 million during the year ending in March. However, this figure represents only 1.3 percent of the total increase in the bloc’s exports, suggesting other factors contributed to this shift.
The US–China trade dispute is reshaping the landscape
Among these factors is the escalation of the US–China trade dispute, which may have prompted Beijing to look for alternative suppliers, especially for metals and agricultural products — two of its key imports from Washington.
The bloc’s exports to China jumped to $5.8 billion during this period, a 66 percent increase from $3.5 billion in the previous year. In contrast, the bloc’s imports from China rose slightly by 7.6 percent to $4 billion, compared to $3.7 billion in March 2024.
This marks the first time the East African Community records a trade surplus with China, reflecting a significant shift in a relationship that had always tilted in favor of Beijing due to its imports of electronics and heavy machinery.
At the same time, the bloc’s exports to four of its other major trading partners — the UAE, Hong Kong, South Africa, and India — also increased, boosting the trade surplus.
For example, the bloc’s exports to Hong Kong tripled within a year, rising from $561.9 million in 2024 to $1.58 billion this year, making it East Africa’s third-largest export market after China and the UAE.
The bloc’s imports from some of its main trading partners — such as the UAE, India, Russia, and Germany — saw a notable decline in total value, which also contributed to the surplus.
Bernard Wabukala, an economics professor at Makerere University Business School, said: “The bloc’s total trade with the world is increasing, but export growth is outpacing import growth.”
Dr. Wabukala confirmed that rising demand for African goods from the Chinese market was the main driver behind the increase in exports, noting that the surplus was a natural result of an upward trajectory that began some time ago.
He told The EastAfrican: “We’ve seen a major jump in exports to China, reflecting strong demand from that market, along with an improvement in product quality and diversity, especially in agriculture and mining. This trend is likely to continue in the medium term, especially with better rainy seasons supporting agricultural output.”
Data from the East African Community shows that the commodity with the largest increase in exports during this period was “copper and its derivatives,” which nearly doubled to reach $6.6 billion, compared to $3.9 billion in March 2024, indicating a massive rise in exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Other exports that saw strong growth included pearls, precious metals, and gemstones, which rose by 77 percent to $2.95 billion, compared to $1.67 billion, and are mainly exported from Congo, and partially from Tanzania and Uganda.
Exports of coffee, tea, and spices — mainly from Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania — also rose by $364.4 million, or about 30 percent, reaching $1.2 billion during the same period.
Meanwhile, the dollar index rose by 0.7% to 98.3 points by 16:10 GMT, recording a high of 98.3 and a low of 97.4 points.
In trading, copper futures for September delivery dropped by 2.9% to $5.62 per pound at 16:03 GMT.
