KARACHI: State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmad projected on Wednesday that the central bank’s foreign exchange (FX) reserves were expected to rise by $3 billion, reaching $17.5 billion by the end of the fiscal year 2025-26.
The growth in the reserves would take place despite foreign debt repayments, including rollovers, totalling at $25.9 billion in FY26, he added.
“The FX reserves could be higher than the targeted $17.5 billion in FY26 if Pakistan raised new debt from global capital market through selling Eurobond,” Ahmad said at SBP monetary policy press conference. The central bank decided to keep the key interest unchanged at 11%.
The FX reserves stood at $14.5 billion at the end of FY25 on June 30, 2025.
He anticipated that Pakistan’s GDP (gross domestic product) would grow in the range of 3.25% to 4.25% in FY26.
It may be noted that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Pakistan’s GDP growth at 3.6% for FY26.
The growth would be supported by revival in agricultural output and continue improvement in industrial and services sectors, SBP governor said.
The current account deficit is expected to be in the range of 0-1% of GDP in FY26, ending the cycle of C/A surplus recorded in FY25.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the SBP noted that year-on-year inflation was expected to mostly remain in the range of 5–7 percent in FY26, though it might cross the upper bound in some months.
The MPC emphasised that the outlook was susceptible to multiple risks emanating from uncertain global commodity prices and trade outlook, unanticipated adjustments in administered energy prices, and potential widespread floods.
