Analysts said exports of the chemical – a type of nitrogen used in agriculture as well as to curb diesel and industrial emissions – may continue rising in August and September, as a large portion of the quota remained unused and shipments to India might resume.
China exported 567,184 tonnes of urea in July, an increase of 614 per cent year-on-year and a 7.6-fold rise from June’s shipments, according to customs data released on Wednesday.
Exports in June had already jumped to nearly 66,241 tonnes, compared with an average of no more than 2,200 tonnes a month between January and May.
The remarkable surge was mostly attributed to an exceptionally low base last year caused by the ban, reinforcing market speculation that Beijing had relaxed controls.
Xu Xiaoyun, an analyst from commodity consultancy JLC Network Technology, noted that inspections restarted in late May before Beijing issued its quota. “The urea exports in June and July were conducted under government guidance, with quota limits and price controls, rather than being fully opened.”
Export destinations for the chemical also expanded from 13 countries and regions in June to 31 in July, customs data showed.
