KARACHI: The country has recorded a significant seventeen percent decline in cotton production, which represents an alarming situation for the agricultural sector. The primary causes of this reduction are attributed to climate change and untimely rainfall.
The cotton trade has been severely affected due to the rainy season, and commercial activities have become limited. Both farmers and traders are facing losses from this situation.
Due to weather conditions, a clear difference has been observed in the quality of cotton crops across various regions. In some areas, rainfall has benefited the crop and cotton production there is satisfactory. However, in fields where water has accumulated, there is a risk of severe damage to the crop. Excessive water can affect the roots of cotton plants, which may have negative impacts on overall production.
According to chairman Cotton Ginners Forum-ul-Haq, for the first time in Pakistan’s history, approximately fifty percent of ginning factories in Punjab province have become inactive. This situation is extremely concerning for the industrial sector and may have far-reaching effects on the economy.
Head Transfer of Technology Central Cotton Research Institute Multan Sajid Mahmood, commenting on this situation, stated that a sustainable and comprehensive solution for cotton recovery is only possible through effective government patronage and organized measures. He emphasized that finding an immediate solution to this problem is an urgent necessity of the time.
The Prime Minister has also expressed seriousness about the current devastation of the cotton industry and has sounded the alarm bell. At the governmental level, recognizing the importance of this issue, emphasis has been placed on the need for immediate and effective measures.
This situation is not only causing financial difficulties for farmers but is also affecting the textile industry, which is an important pillar of the national economy. Experts say that if effective measures are not taken immediately, this problem could become even more serious.
The local cotton market witnessed fluctuating price trends throughout the past week, with business operations being significantly affected by ongoing rainfall, though trading volumes remained relatively low.
Textile and spinning mills have adopted cautious purchasing strategies due to the adverse weather conditions, while ginners are also exercising restraint in their cotton procurement activities. The current rainfall situation presents a mixed scenario for crop conditions across different regions. Areas where rainwater has not accumulated are reporting satisfactory crop status, while fields experiencing water logging face potential damage concerns.
The reduced supply of cotton lint due to rainfall disruptions and sluggish business conditions has resulted in an unprecedented situation where approximately 50 percent of ginning factories in Punjab province have remained inactive. This marks the first time such extensive factory closures have occurred in the country.
According to production statistics released by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association up to August 15, cotton arrivals in Pakistan dropped 17 per cent year-on-year to 887,400 bales.
In Sindh province, cotton prices ranged from 16,200 to 16,400 rupees per maund based on quality specifications, while cotton Phutti varied between 6,500 to 7,400 rupees per 40 kilograms depending on quality grades.
Punjab province recorded cotton prices between 16,300 to 16,600 rupees per maund, with Phutti trading at 6,800 to 7,600 rupees per 40 kilograms.
Balochistan province saw cotton prices ranging from 16,100 to 16,300 rupees per maund, while Phutti prices remained between 6,800 to 7,500 rupees per 40 kilograms.
The Karachi Cotton Association’s Spot Rate Committee clised the spot rate at Rs 16,200 per maund.
Naseem Usman, Chairman of the Karachi Cotton Brokers Forum, reported that international cotton prices maintained relative stability during the recent trading period. New York cotton futures remained within a range of 68.50 to 71 American cents per pound throughout the week.
According to the United States Department of Agriculture’s weekly export and sales report, cotton sales for the 2025-26 season reached 105,400 bales during the reporting period. The sales figures demonstrated strong international demand across multiple markets.
Vietnam emerged as the leading purchaser in the international cotton market, acquiring 35,800 bales during the week. Pakistan secured the second position with purchases totalling 28,100 bales, while Bangladesh ranked third with acquisitions of 21,300 bales.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Friday sounded the alarm over the declining state of Pakistan’s once-thriving cotton industry, emphasizing the need for immediate national efforts to revive a sector whose production has dramatically fallen from 14 million bales to just 4 million bales in recent years.
“We must restore our cotton sector. Similarly, there is tremendous potential in livestock as well,” the Prime Minister stated while addressing a ceremony marking the departure of an additional 300 students to China for a fully-funded international training program aimed at upgrading Pakistan’s agricultural sector.
Describing agriculture as the backbone of the national economy, Shehbaz Sharif stressed the urgent need to modernize this sector to address declining productivity and unlock its vast potential, particularly in cotton and livestock production.
The cotton industry crisis has reached unprecedented levels, with fifty percent of ginning factories in Punjab becoming non-operational for the first time in the country’s history due to insufficient cotton sales. This situation has contributed to a continued downward trend in cotton prices across the region.
The challenges facing the cotton sector are expected to intensify as weather forecasts predict additional rainfall in Punjab and Sindh provinces. These anticipated weather conditions pose further risks to both standing cotton crops and the quality of already harvested cotton, potentially exacerbating the industry’s current difficulties.
For the first time in history, 50 percent of ginning factories in Punjab have become non-operational due to unsold cotton stocks, leading to a continued decline in cotton prices. The situation has raised concerns about the cotton industry’s future, with fears of further quality deterioration due to predicted rainfall in Punjab and Sindh.
Chairman of the Cotton Ginners Forum, Ehsan-ul-Haq, revealed that the declining quality of cotton has significantly reduced its demand, resulting in an accumulation of unsold stocks in ginning factories. This has pushed cotton ginners into a financial crisis, forcing them to shut down operations.
He further explained that the recent appreciation of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar has also contributed to the drop in cotton prices. Over the past week, cotton prices in Pakistan fell by Rs. 200 per maund, bringing the price down to Rs 16,300 per maund.
The forecast of additional rainfall in Punjab and Sindh has heightened fears of further damage to the cotton crop and the quality of harvested cotton. This could exacerbate the challenges faced by the industry, which is already struggling with unsold stocks and declining prices.
Ehsan-ul-Haq also mentioned that the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) is set to release the country’s overall cotton production data as of August 15. However, discrepancies in production figures have caused concern among stakeholders.
According to the PCGA, Punjab’s ginning factories received 301,000 bales of cotton by July 31. In contrast, the Crop Reporting Centre Punjab reported that 609,000 bales were produced in the province during the same period, more than double the PCGA’s figures. This significant discrepancy has created confusion among cotton stakeholders, making it difficult for them to devise effective strategies.
Discussing the current cotton crisis and its possible solutions in a telephonic conversation with renowned cotton analyst Naseem Usman, Sajid Mahmood, Head of Technology Transfer Department at the Central Cotton Research Institute Multan, stated that in developed countries the system of cotton research and development has always remained under government management. Although public private partnership is globally regarded as a successful model, even within this framework the role of the private sector largely remains supportive. In these countries the textile industry collaborates with farmers through models such as cluster farming which not only increases productivity but also restores farmers’ confidence. Pakistan also needs its textile industry to ensure practical cooperation with research institutions and farmers in large scale so that cotton production and quality can be improved.
Citing past examples he said the textile industry had once established the Cotton Foundation to stabilize cotton production but the experiment failed. Similarly the cotton cess which was the sole financial source for Pakistan Central Cotton Committee the country’s largest cotton research institution was suspended in 2016 with outstanding dues now exceeding Rs 2.5 billion. Major textile groups also launched a seed company under the name SANIFA but it suddenly disappeared from the scene resulting in heavy financial losses.
Sajid Mahmood further noted that although some well known local seed companies are introducing new varieties and bringing considerable acreage under cultivation, the overall national production continues to decline which is alarming. The fact remains that cotton production peaked in 2014 at a time when only government institutions were conducting research and the role of the private sector was minimal. International biotech seed companies also failed to provide any sustainable solution. In the past Monsanto’s seeds could not withstand Pakistan’s harsh climatic conditions while varieties imported from China and the United States proved vulnerable to viruses and local weather impacts. Global seed companies operate solely for commercial interests and their varieties have not proven superior to local seeds.
He added that in large countries like China and the United States both cotton acreage and production are declining proving that there is no global solution to increasing output.
Sajid Mahmood emphasized that in Pakistan cotton related problems are region specific and their solutions can only come from local research and technology. The real crisis stems from low market prices reduced profitability for farmers and insufficient investment in research institutions. In countries like India heavy subsidies are provided to cotton farmers which boost their confidence. In Pakistan the sugar industry provides a parallel example it won the trust of farmers by supplying subsidized inputs and maintaining production continuity. In contrast the textile industry’s role has been disappointing as neither direct relief was extended to farmers nor were research institutions provided with practical support. The time has come for the textile industry to adopt the successful model of the sugar industry and ensure genuine collaboration with farmers to overcome the cotton crisis.
He further stressed that despite rising agricultural costs and inflation cotton prices in Pakistan remain tied to the global market. Although the Government of Pakistan has repeatedly invited international companies to establish research systems here no foreign company has yet shown practical interest.
Sajid Mahmood further remarked that when discussing the decline in cotton production, comparisons are often drawn with India, whereas our resources are closer to those of Cambodia, yet expectations are set as high as China’s production. Unless this gap is addressed, our cotton and the entire cotton sector will continue to remain in decline.
Concluding the discussion Sajid Mahmood stated that the fundamental condition for success in reviving cotton is competitiveness. For this it is essential that the textile industry and private seed companies establish their own parallel research systems so that farmers have access to diverse high quality seed varieties and a sustainable research framework can be developed. Ultimately the reality remains that a sustainable and comprehensive revival of cotton is only possible through government patronage and effective management since the challenges facing cotton stretch across the entire value chain from field to fabric.
Cotton arrivals in Pakistan dropped 17 per cent year-on-year to 887,400 bales as of Aug 15, primarily due to a sharp decline in Punjab’s output, raising concerns over the country’s domestic production outlook.
According to data released by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) on Monday, Punjab — once showing a 3pc increase in arrivals by July 31 — witnessed a reversal by mid-August, with arrivals now 6pc lower than the same period last year. In contrast, Sindh, which was lagging 47pc behind last year’s figures at end-July, has narrowed its shortfall to 24pc.
Industry attributes the slump to recent rains, which have damaged quality, reducing demand from textile mills and forcing many ginning factories to halt operations. Ihsanul Haq, Chairman of the Cotton Ginners Forum, remains hopeful that with improved conditions, ginning activity in Punjab will resume soon.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
