PARIS (AP) — France ’s prime minister has announced a confidence vote next month that likely will lead to the collapse of his centrist government and prompt another period of political instability in the European Union’s second-biggest economy.
François Bayrou said Monday he would seek approval for his unpopular budget plans on Sept. 8 at the National Assembly, France’s lower house of parliament. Opposition parties quickly said they would vote against it.
President Emmanuel Macron, who has vowed to stay in office until the end of his term due in 2027, may soon face the complex task of appointing a new prime minister for the third time in a year. The prime minister focuses mostly on domestic policies, while the president retains substantial powers over foreign policy, European affairs and defense.
Here’s a look at what’s at stake.
Bayrou’s risky strategy
Early legislative elections called by Macron in June last year led to a chaotic situation in parliament, divided among three minority blocs that do not have enough seats to govern alone.
Bayrou, 74, has been in office since December.
He unveiled plans last month to cut 44 billion euros ($51 billion) in spending, after France’s deficit hit 5.8% of gross domestic product last year, way above the official EU target of 3%. The plans includes removing two state holidays.
Bayrou has no option beyond relying on the support — or at least abstention — of adversaries on the left and right to pass the budget bill. That’s why he decided to seek a confidence vote ahead of the debate that is scheduled to start in October.
The uncertainty prompted by his decision has alarmed financial markets. The Paris CAC 40 benchmark index fell around 2% after opening on Tuesday.
Opposition vows to vote against it
All opposition parties on the left and the far-right said they would vote against expressing confidence in Bayrou’s government.
Hard-left France Unbowed lawmakers said they want to “make the government fall,” and the Socialists vowed to reject an “unfair budget.”
The national secretary of the Greens, Marine Tondelier, described Bayrou’s confidence vote as “a resignation de facto.”
The far-right National Rally’s lawmakers also will vote against it, party leader Marine Le Pen said.
Far-right and left-wing lawmakers hold over 320 seats at the National Assembly while the centrists and allied conservatives hold 210, making it impossible for Bayrou’s government to survive if opposition groups team up.
What lies ahead
If a majority of lawmakers vote against expressing confidence, Bayrou and his ministers will have to resign. Macron will be in charge of appointing a new prime minister.
He could pick a figure from the traditional left or right in an effort to consolidate his centrist alliance, but either one would be in a precarious position amid the political deadlock in parliament. Bayrou succeeded a conservative, Michel Barnier, who was ousted after only three months in office.
Some politicians, including Le Pen, are urging Macron to call a new round of legislative elections in the hope of reshuffling the political cards before the 2027 presidential election. The French president has not said whether he would be ready to use that option.
