The number of robotaxis on the mainland was expected to jump to 4 million by the late 2030s, as more Chinese passengers were willing to embrace new technologies, said Paul Gong, head of China automotive research at UBS.
“Given the fast development of technologies and the increasingly expensive labour cost, autonomous vehicles will be highly helpful in driving productivity,” he said, adding that the robotaxi market in mainland China could eventually hit US$183 billion a year if all the two million taxis and five million cars running on ride-hailing platforms are replaced by driverless cabs.
Gong was unable to provide a time frame for the full commercialisation of the robotaxi business on the mainland because it hinged on regulation and customer reactions.
His bullish forecast echoed an HSBC estimate last month that robotaxis would account for 6 per cent of the country’s total taxi market. The bank said the market size would top US$40 billion a year initially, though it did not elaborate on when local operators could achieve the goal.
Aside from serving human passengers, autonomous taxis on the mainland could also generate revenue worth US$30 billion a year by offering logistics and delivery services, HSBC said in a research report published on July 14.
Gong said the lower cost of building EVs with autonomous technologies was the biggest growth driver for the expansion of robotaxi fleets on the mainland. The production cost of building a self-driving taxi would be reduced to less than 300,000 yuan (US$41,935), he added.
