Palladium prices rose on Thursday as the US dollar weakened against most major currencies and speculation increased that the Federal Reserve is moving toward a rate cut.
Sibanye-Stillwater, a US-listed miner, is seeking tariffs on Russian palladium imports, a step that could add volatility to the metal’s price.
The Johannesburg-based company said its petition adds further uncertainty to the outlook for platinum group metals (PGMs), following a rally since the start of the year driven by lower output in South Africa during the first half and thin liquidity in the spot market.
“We believe Russian palladium imports are being sold below market prices due to several factors, which began after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022,” CEO Neal Froneman said in a July 31 statement on the company’s website.
He added: “Securing protection against subsidized and dumped Russian imports will allow Sibanye-Stillwater, its employees, and the entire US PGM industry to compete in a fairer environment.”
A decision on the petition is expected within 13 months.
Norilsk Nickel, the Russian company that controls about 40% of global mined palladium output, declined to comment.
Sibanye-Stillwater, which operates production assets in South Africa and the US, reported a second consecutive annual loss last year after writing down 500 million dollars from its US palladium operations amid weaker prices.
Spot palladium prices have risen 31% so far in 2025, with positive expectations for the rest of the year. A July Reuters poll showed analysts expect palladium prices to climb in 2025 for the first time in four years, supported by gains in platinum.
However, Heraeus analysts cautioned that “tariffs on Russian metal may not change market balances, but could redirect global trade flows, increasing price volatility.”
According to Trade Data Monitor, Russia and South Africa are the main suppliers of palladium to the US, while China ranks second after the US as the largest buyer of Russian metal.
US imports of Russian palladium rose 42% year-on-year to over 500,000 troy ounces between January and May, according to Heraeus.
Palladium and PGMs are widely used in gasoline vehicle catalytic converters, and have so far avoided both US sanctions on Russian firms over the Ukraine war and any import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump.
Separately, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, markets currently see an 86% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in September.
Meanwhile, the dollar index fell 0.3% to 97.9 points by 16:02 GMT, after hitting a high of 98.2 and a low of 97.8.
On the trading side, December palladium futures rose 2% to 1,125.5 dollars an ounce at 16:02 GMT.
