Analysts warn this reliance leaves Manila exposed to Washington’s shifting priorities under Trump, whose unpredictability has raised concerns about America’s willingness to support Manila in a crisis.
How far the Philippines should go in reinforcing its military and expanding security partnerships is unclear. Some caution that a stronger deterrent could entangle the country in a potential future conflict with China. Others argue that greater diversification of allies is essential to reduce dependence on the US.
The Crisis Group report, released on August 12, highlights the challenge of “grey zone” tactics, defined as “operations intended to test, provoke and fatigue Philippine forces without crossing the line into acts of war”.
It said these activities by China had raised doubts about how Washington would interpret the defence treaty’s obligations, which commit both signatories to come to the other’s aid in the event of an attack by a third party.
