Oil prices rose by more than 1% on Monday after OPEC+ announced a planned production increase for November that was smaller than expected, easing some concerns about oversupply, although weak demand forecasts are likely to cap gains in the near term.
Brent crude futures climbed 89 cents, or 1.4%, to $65.42 a barrel by 11:07 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 84 cents, or roughly 1.4%, to $61.72 a barrel.
Rystad Energy analyst Yaniv Shah said, “The market was expecting a slightly larger increase from OPEC+, as last week’s price structure indicated. But the modest 137,000-barrel-per-day hike already adds to the anticipated surplus in the supply-demand balance for the fourth quarters of 2025 and 2026.”
OPEC and its allies, including Russia and several smaller producers, announced on Sunday that they would raise output in November by 137,000 barrels per day — the same as October’s increase — amid lingering concerns about a potential supply glut.
Ahead of the meeting, sources said Russia supported the 137,000-barrel increase to avoid price pressure, while Saudi Arabia preferred a doubling or tripling of that amount to quickly regain market share.
Thomas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates, noted that the modest increase comes at a time when markets are seeing higher exports from Venezuela, the resumption of Kurdish oil flows via Turkey, and unsold Middle Eastern cargoes scheduled for November loading.
Saudi Arabia kept its official selling price for Arab Light crude to Asia unchanged.
Asian refiners surveyed by Reuters had expected a small price hike, but those expectations faded after concerns over rising Middle Eastern supply drove premiums down to their lowest level in 22 months last week.
Despite US pressure on India — one of the largest buyers of Russian oil — to scale back imports, an Indian government official told Reuters on Monday that refiners have sufficient Russian supply. He added that recent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure increased available volumes, partially supporting the market.
In the near term, analysts expect the upcoming refinery maintenance season in the Middle East to help limit price gains.
Weak demand fundamentals during the fourth quarter also remain a factor restraining the market’s upside.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported last week that crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories rose more than expected during the week ending September 26, as refinery activity and demand declined.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, said: “If we see a steadier increase in production, the downside in oil prices may be limited. Much now depends on whether the US economy can regain growth momentum through the rest of 2025 and into 2026, as that would significantly support demand.”
