Bitcoin fell to around $120,000 on Wednesday, down 2.22% over the past 24 hours, trading near $121,000 and marking a 3.75% decline from its record high of $126,000 reached earlier this week.
The pullback follows a strong rally that began in late September, coinciding with a surge in inflows to US spot Bitcoin ETFs — which recorded their second-largest week of inflows since launching in January 2024.
According to earlier reports, those funds saw a combined $1.19 billion in inflows on October 6, led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which alone attracted $967 million. The following day, October 7, the funds experienced net outflows of $23.81 million.
$140,000 Before the End of October?
Economist Timothy Peterson said that historical models based on the past decade’s data suggest a 50% chance that Bitcoin could exceed $140,000 by the end of October.
His analysis, derived from hundreds of simulations using actual price data since 2015, shows that roughly half of the potential monthly gains have already been realized. However, Peterson also estimated a 43% probability that Bitcoin will close the month below $136,000, underscoring the extreme volatility that continues to define the crypto market.
October has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, delivering average returns of 20.75% since 2013, according to CoinGlass. For the token to reach $140,000, it would need to rise about 14.7% from current levels.
Gold Hits New Record Highs
While Bitcoin’s momentum slowed, traditional safe-haven assets continued to surge. Spot gold climbed above $4,000 per ounce, reaching a record $4,017.16 on the morning of October 8, while US gold futures for December delivery advanced to $4,040 per ounce.
Gold has delivered exceptional performance in 2025, up 53% year-to-date after gaining 27% in 2024, as investors increasingly turn to it as a hedge against inflation and currency weakness — even as Bitcoin matures as a potential digital alternative.
On-Chain Data Shows Declining Selling Pressure
According to CryptoQuant data, the Fund Flow Ratio — which measures exchange-related transactions versus total network activity — dropped to its lowest level since July 2023.
This suggests more Bitcoin is moving into private wallets for long-term holding, DeFi applications, or OTC institutional trades rather than being sent to exchanges for liquidation.
Such patterns often precede medium-term recoveries, as investors begin rotating capital toward the next promising digital assets.
