Nickel prices fell on Tuesday as a major U.S. bank issued a downbeat forecast for industrial metals next year.
In a research note published Friday, Goldman Sachs said copper prices are expected to remain within a range of $10,000 to $11,000 per metric ton during 2026–2027 due to a supply surplus, though the long-term outlook for industrial metals remains positive.
The bank highlighted three key factors likely to cap copper’s upside:
Chinese buyers may reduce purchases if prices exceed $11,000 per ton, as seen in Q2 2024; high U.S. inventories could quickly rebalance the market if price spreads on the London Metal Exchange (LME) narrow; and demand linked to data centers may have been overestimated compared to initial projections.
Copper prices dropped Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington was considering a major increase in tariffs on Chinese imports, raising fears of an escalating trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
Goldman: Indonesian producer margins to determine nickel’s path
Regarding the nickel market, Goldman Sachs said profit margins for Indonesian producers need to decline further to slow supply growth and reverse the persistent surplus.
The bank expects nickel prices to fall 6% to $14,500 per metric ton by December 2026.
Aluminum market seen in surplus, prices unlikely to recover before 2030
Goldman also forecasts a surplus in the aluminum market as Indonesian supply rises from mid-2026.
It projects aluminum prices at around $2,350 per ton in Q4 2026, with no return to current levels before 2030.
China to become net zinc exporter by 2026
The bank expects China to shift from a net importer to a net exporter of zinc in 2026, driven by increased domestic production.
“We expect China’s rising output to move the country from deficit to surplus, while the market outside China turns to deficit,” the report said. “To achieve global balance, Chinese producers will need to be incentivized to export.”
Cobalt supported by supply tightness and new export quotas from Congo
In the cobalt market, Goldman Sachs noted that new export quotas imposed by the Democratic Republic of Congo — which accounts for 70% of global supply — are likely to trigger a deficit in 2026, tightening the market and supporting prices.
Lithium to stay depressed until 2026 amid persistent oversupply
Goldman also expects lithium prices to remain subdued for longer, averaging $8,900 per metric ton in 2026, citing ongoing oversupply keeping the market bloated.
As of 16:07 GMT, spot nickel prices were down 0.7% at $14,900 per ton.
