US natural gas prices fell this week to a two-week low amid forecasts for milder weather in the coming period.
Gas traded at 3.03 dollars per million British thermal units, the lowest since late September, though still far above levels seen in October 2024. Analysts believe that the sharp increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports has played a key role in sustaining these higher prices — a paradox that now places President Donald Trump in a political and economic bind.
Upon taking office, Trump pledged to make domestic energy cheaper while turning the United States into a dominant global energy power. In oil, that meant keeping gasoline prices low while expanding exports. The same ambition applies to natural gas — but achieving both affordability and dominance simultaneously is far more difficult, as the two goals are inherently at odds.
Since the start of the year, US LNG exports have been climbing to record highs.
According to the latest data for September, exports reached 9.4 million tons, up from 9.3 million in August — a new all-time record. That record is expected to be broken again this month as Europe races to stockpile gas ahead of winter.
But the key question now is whether US gas producers can keep up with this surging demand — and more importantly, whether they even want to.
US natural gas producers, like oil drillers, are highly sensitive to price swings. When prices remain low for too long, producers typically scale back output.
That is not the case today. Prices have risen by about one dollar per million British thermal units over the past year, and demand prospects remain strong — driven by the rapid growth of domestic data centers and digital infrastructure that consume massive amounts of energy, as well as Europe’s commitment to increase purchases of US energy.
This means the Trump administration has succeeded in achieving “energy dominance,” but at the cost of its promise to keep domestic prices low.
America’s rise as a “gas superpower” stems from the shale gas revolution. However, shale fields are now maturing, as noted in a *Wall Street Journal* report analyzing Trump’s energy policy.
Over time, extraction costs are expected to rise — pushing prices higher for both US consumers and global buyers.
Eugene Kim, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie, told the paper, “If you want to export all this LNG while meeting growth in the data sector and higher electricity demand, you’ll need higher prices. That’s exactly the opposite of what Trump wants — cheaper energy.”
Norway’s experience two years ago serves as a warning: expanding gas and electricity exports to Europe drove domestic prices sharply higher, sparking public backlash and forcing the government to impose export limits to protect local consumers.
At the same time, Tom Summers, head of LNG trading at Shell, said earlier this year, “Updated projections show that the world will need more gas for power generation, heating, cooling, industry, and transport to meet development and decarbonization goals.” He expects LNG demand to rise by 60% by 2040.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, LNG exports reached 14 billion cubic feet per day in July and could climb to 27 billion cubic feet per day, according to analysts cited by *The Wall Street Journal.*
This scenario looks ideal for US gas producers under an administration eager to expand export capacity — but far less so for domestic consumers.
Rising US gas prices appear inevitable as shale gas productivity declines — a trend also seen in oil fields.
Much of America’s gas output comes as associated gas from oil wells, which are themselves nearing depletion in their richest zones — known as “sweet spots,” or areas with high output and low cost.
This means production costs will rise in the future, translating into higher end prices for consumers.
Industry executives quoted by *The Wall Street Journal* said US producers need prices of at least 5 dollars per million British thermal units to justify investment in lower-yield, higher-cost regions — roughly double current levels.
If that does not happen, supply will eventually contract as drilling slows, which in turn will push prices higher — an outcome producers dislike because it dampens demand.
The CEO of Aeton Energy Management said earlier this year, “We want long-term price stability for the commodity; we don’t want to destroy demand through volatility.”
Yet lasting price stability remains elusive — and with oil and gas demand largely inelastic, the world must brace for an era of more expensive gas.
