Despite sagging consumer sentiment, the holiday shopping season kicked off on a high note over the weekend — a positive signal for our retail stocks. Shares of several retail stocks are up on Monday, including Abercrombie & Fitch (+5%), Urban Outfitters (+5%), and Bath & Body Works (+10%). Portfolio names Amazon , Home Depot , TJX Companies , and Nike were also in the green in midday trading. The State Street SPDR S & P Retail ETF (XRT) added more than 1% on Monday, bringing its five-day gain to more than 7%. “The narrative that the consumer is not doing well is being challenged,” said Jim Cramer on Monday on “Squawk on the Street,” citing Mastercard’s “pretty good numbers.” Indeed, U.S retail spending excluding autos rose 4.1% year over year on Black Friday, up from 3.4% in 2024, according to Mastercard’s SpendingPulse report, which tracks in-person and online spending. Some of the popular shopping categories included jewelry, apparel, cosmetics, video game consoles, and home appliances. (The report does not break out total sales numbers.) Online shopping sales hit a record high of $11.8 billion, compared to $10.8 billion in 2024, according to Adobe Analytics. But the growth rate of 10.4% was down from last year’s 14.6%. The firm expects Cyber Monday sales to reach $14.2 billion, a 6.3% year-over-year increase, making it the biggest online shopping day of the year. That’s encouraging news for Amazon , which accounts for the largest share of online shopping in the U.S. Amazon is Bank of America’s top e-commerce pick, citing the company’s artificial intelligence integration with Rufus, Amazon’s AI-powered shopping assistant, better pricing versus peers, and its faster delivery speeds, the firm wrote Monday. It has a buy rating and a $303 price objective on the stock. UBS notes that consumers are likely to focus on essentials and seek discounts as inflation continues to squeeze household budgets. “This favors retailers like Walmart and Costco, who are perceived to be pricing aggressively,” the firm wrote Monday. Costco began its holiday promotions early, rolling out deals across discretionary categories in October and throughout November. Those “targeted promotions across discretionary categories helped attract consumers,” Telsey Advisory Group said Monday. Investors will get a clearer picture of how Costco fared in early holiday shopping when it reports November sales on Wednesday and again during its first-quarter results for fiscal 2026 on Dec. 11. Among off-price retailers, TJX Companies , the owner of TJ Maxx, HomeGoods, and Marshalls, dominated consumer interest in its category over the weekend, according to Telsey. The firm noted that the company is likely to benefit from market share gains this holiday season as wary consumers prioritize value. Management said during its latest earnings report that the company’s fourth quarter is already off to a strong start. The National Retail Federation expects 2025 holiday sales to increase between 3.7% and 4.2%, compared with 4.3% growth in 2024. Total sales are predicted to reach 1 trillion, marking the first time holiday spending is expected to surpass the trillion-dollar threshold. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
