Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading at $92,949, up 4.1% over the past 24 hours, extending a sharp rebound from Monday’s low of $84,000. The world’s largest digital asset has recovered roughly 10% this week after falling more than 33% from its all-time highs above $126,000 in October. The latest rebound reflects investor repositioning as expectations grow for a Federal Reserve rate cut, alongside improving regulatory sentiment and continued institutional buying — all of which are helping restore a bullish tone heading into December.
Federal Reserve expectations and the return of liquidity
Macro forces have once again taken the lead in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory. Traders now assign an 88.8% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s December 10 meeting, according to CME FedWatch. The shift came after US import and export price data showed flat monthly inflation and a mild 0.3% annual rise in import prices — the slowest in seven months.
US Treasury yields dropped sharply, with the 10-year falling to 4.06%, while the US Dollar Index retreated to 96.51, its lowest since October. The end of quantitative tightening on December 1 marked a pivotal moment for liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin, following two years of global pressure on risk appetite. Open interest in Bitcoin futures has climbed 12% week-on-week, while spot trading volumes are up 20%, confirming renewed institutional flows ahead of an expected monetary easing cycle.
Regulatory shifts boost institutional confidence
Regulatory developments also supported Bitcoin’s rise. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins announced plans for a new “innovation exemption” aimed at modernizing the digital-asset framework by clarifying rules on issuance, custody, and on-chain trading. If implemented, this would be the most supportive US regulatory environment for crypto since 2021.
The narrative strengthened further as Vanguard — the world’s second-largest asset manager — reversed its long-held stance and will now allow trading of crypto ETFs and digital-asset funds on its platform. This effectively opens access to millions of retail and institutional investors at a moment when liquidity conditions are improving, marking a structural expansion in potential Bitcoin demand.
Corporate risk: Strategy (MSTR) and a potential 2028 stress point
Despite the near-term optimism, concerns are rising around Strategy — the largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin. A Tiger Research report found that Strategy’s balance sheet can withstand BTC prices as low as $23,000 before liabilities exceed assets, supported by convertible debt and preferred-equity issuances.
However, 2028 presents a significant risk: $6.4 billion in convertible bonds will mature, and call provisions could trigger early repayment. If Bitcoin trades near the insolvency threshold at that time, the company may need to liquidate up to 20%–30% of global daily spot BTC volume, potentially causing systemic market stress. Chairman Michael Saylor has downplayed these risks, arguing that liquidity growth, ETF integration, and increased corporate adoption will offset volatility — but the 2028 scenario remains a notable long-term credit risk tied directly to Bitcoin’s price structure.
Institutional flows, market positioning, and volatility indicators
Data from CoinMarketCap and Glassnode shows that institutional wallets accumulated roughly 16,200 BTC over the past 72 hours, alongside about $59 million in ETF inflows. Vanguard’s policy shift accelerated these flows.
This recovery comes as the CBOE VIX remains near 16.54, signaling broad market calm despite rising trading activity. Meanwhile, the Treasury-bond MOVE index continues to decline, strengthening the relationship between rate-market volatility and digital-asset pricing.
BTC/USD remains highly sensitive to yield movements: traders estimate that each 10-basis-point shift in the US 10-year yield can add or subtract roughly $2,000 from Bitcoin’s price.
Short-term technical outlook and key levels
Technically, Bitcoin faces immediate resistance between $94,000 and $98,000, an area that aligns with prior selling zones and the 200-hour moving average. A breakout above this range could pave the way for a test of the $100,000 psychological barrier — a level that capped the August rally.
On the downside, support appears strong near $88,200, a key on-chain accumulation region. The daily RSI has climbed from oversold territory (34) to 51, indicating a neutral recovery with room for upward continuation. Derivatives markets show perpetual-funding rates at +0.015%, suggesting mild bullish bias without excessive leverage — a constructive environment for sustained gains.
