China is estimated to have secured more than half of the 12 million tonnes of soybeans that Washington says Beijing committed to purchase by early 2026, based on US government data and market conventions that analysts say usually indicate China, though little has been shipped so far, heightening concerns over potential cancellations.
While the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has officially documented nearly four million tonnes in sales explicitly to China, three million tonnes currently sit in the “unknown destinations” category. The practice of initial “unknown” bookings, later routed to China, is a long-standing pattern in the soybean trade, often used by state buyers to stabilise prices before physical shipment.
“It’s a common practice that the Chinese have used for years regarding beans, soybeans and sometimes corn,” said Sean Lusk, Vice-President of Walsh Trading Inc, a specialised commodity brokerage firm based in Chicago, Illinois, adding, “everybody knows it’s usually them [China] as it relates to soybeans.”
The firm, in its recent report, said that “between China and Unknown Destinations, purchases are close to seven million tonnes so far”. This total was echoed by American financial services company StoneX: “We believe that China has bought close to six million tonnes of the 12 million tonnes committed to for the current year,” the firm said in a report this week.
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Soybeans: China’s new bargaining chip in trade war with US?
Soybeans: China’s new bargaining chip in trade war with US?
However, Lusk emphasised that not much has been shipped.
