Just recently, the prime minister constituted a 15-member committee tasked with formulating policy and administrative measures to revive cotton production in the country. Once a net exporter, Pakistan touched a production peak of 13.96 million bales in 2014-15. Since then, however, output has experienced a dramatic downturn, plummeting to just 5.5m bales in 2024-25 — 50 per cent below target and 34pc lower than last year’s yields.
This sharp decline has forced the country to import raw cotton worth $1.56 billion in July-January (FY25) — nearly double the $0.723bn spent during the same period in FY24 — to sustain its textile and garment industry. Unfortunately, the rising imports of raw cotton, along with edible oil, are further depleting Pakistan’s already strained foreign exchange reserves.
The sharp decline in cotton production is attributed to both falling crop yields and a shrinking cultivated area. Over the past decade (FY15 to FY25), yields have dropped from 802kg to 475kg per hectare, driven by substandard seed varieties, ineffective pesticides, and climate change.
Additionally, farmers have struggled to secure fair cotton prices in line with rising production costs. Price distortions caused by the Export Facilitation Scheme — which allows duty-free imports of cotton, yarn, and fabric while domestically produced cotton and yarn remain subject to an 18pc sales tax — have adversely affected the farmers and ginners alike.
Cotton revival will remain a pipe dream unless farmers’ earnings match or exceed those of alternative crops
Consequently, cotton acreage has shrunk from 2.96m hectares to 1.97m hectares, while the cultivation of competing crops like sugarcane, rice, maize, and sesame has expanded significantly during the same period.
Under the current circumstances, cotton revival would remain a pipe dream unless farmers’ earnings match or exceed those of alternative crops, given its higher production risk arising from greater susceptibility to pests and diseases.
Notably, farmers’ earnings are a function of per-acre yields, market prices, and production costs. However, the government is neither in a position to guarantee higher market prices for cotton — evident from its unfulfilled intervention price of Rs8,500 per 40kg announced for the 2023-24 crop — nor can it lower input costs for cotton to improve farmers’ profitability.
The most viable solution, therefore, lies in boosting per-acre yields by ensuring the availability of high-yielding, climate-resilient seed varieties and quality pesticides in the market.
Unfortunately, the government has failed to provide clear guidance to farmers, even on a crucial matter like seed selection.
Two decades ago, only a handful of government-approved varieties were available. Today, thanks to the government’s liberal seed policy, a much broader selection exists.
The Punjab Agriculture Department’s Cotton Production Plan (2025) — a crop advisory for farmers — recommends 47 approved varieties. In addition, an extensive array of non-approved varieties is also on the market, leaving even well-educated farmers confused and compelling them to follow prevailing trends in their respective areas, regardless of whether those choices are optimal or not.
For increasing yields, the recent strategy of the Punjab government to encourage early cotton sowing in February-March through offering a Rs25,000 incentive to farmers for cultivating five acres warrants comprehensive discussions.
Past experience indicates that such short-term measures are not sustainable, and when these are withdrawn, crop acreage reverts to square one.
Proponents argue that early sowing yields better results amid climate change. However, early sowing does not align with the prevailing cotton-wheat cropping system in Punjab. In case the trend of early cotton sowing is picked, the wheat area would definitely decline.
It is important to note that Pakistan’s agriculture sector faces two fundamental limiting factors — land and water. Any strategy for cotton revival must work within these limitations while ensuring that competing crops like rice, maize, and sesame continue to support both local consumption and exports and that sugar production meets domestic demand.
In the cotton belt, sugarcane has largely supplanted cotton — a shift accelerated by high population growth and easy access to nearby sugar mills. For instance, the Rahimyar Khan district, once renowned for cotton cultivation, currently produces 17.5m tonnes of sugarcane — 20pc of the country’s total output — surpassing even Sindh’s entire production of 16m tonne (2022-23).
In this complex landscape, a promising out-of-the-box solution to expand cotton acreage is to promote sugar beet cultivation — a six-month root vegetable that requires only 40pc of the water needed for sugarcane.
Regions with favourable agro-climatic conditions, such as Bhakkar and Layyah — the country’s leading sugar beet-producing districts — are well-suited for this shift. This approach would reduce reliance on the highly water-intensive, 12-14 month long sugarcane crop in the cotton belt while enabling two crops per year under the cotton-wheat or cotton-mustard (which allows early cotton sowing) cropping systems, maximising land and water efficiency.
Sugar beet is grown in over 50 countries and accounts for 20pc of the world’s sugar output. Moreover, with a higher sugar content (15-20pc) and comparable per-acre yields, sugar beet requires less land than sugarcane to produce the equivalent amount of sugar.
Unfortunately, in Pakistan, the sugar beet share remains less than 1pc — yielding 51,255 tonnes of sugar from 433,419 tonnes of sugar beet — of total sugar production (2022-23). However, this represents a significant increase from the 18,216 tonnes of sugar produced in 2011-12.
In conclusion, the formidable challenges facing Pakistan’s agriculture sector cannot be solved through a business-as-usual approach. The intensifying water shortage and limited land resources call for transformative and sustainable solutions that break away from conventional approaches.
Khalid Wattoo is a farmer and a development professional, and Dr Waqar Ahmad is a former associate professor at the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad
Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, March 17th, 2025
