Copper prices fell on Tuesday as the US dollar strengthened against most major currencies, reversing the previous day’s gains that were supported by expectations of stronger demand growth.
Consumption in the United States and India is expected to emerge as the main drivers of global copper demand over the next decade, after decades of Chinese dominance in the market — a dominance that is now slowing as China’s growth in copper demand loses momentum.
China’s industrial boom and large-scale infrastructure expansion fueled a historic rally that pushed copper prices above $10,000 per metric ton, compared to around $1,500 twenty-five years ago.
While China will remain the world’s largest copper market through the next decade and beyond, analysts expect new regional and geopolitical dynamics to play a greater role in shaping demand and prices worldwide.
Analysts note that shifts in regional policies, infrastructure investment cycles, and global political realignments will force producers, consumers, traders, and investors to adapt to a market now driven by multiple forces rather than a single dominant player.
Tom Price, an analyst at Panmure Liberum, said, “China’s pace of copper consumption and stockpiling will slow, and we’ll return to traditional demand drivers, primarily replacement and renewal cycles outside of China.”
He added that the full impact of these shifts has yet to materialize, but efforts by the United States and other nations to encourage domestic manufacturing will likely slow China’s export-oriented industrial activity, thereby reducing its refined copper demand — estimated at around 15 million tons this year.
In contrast, the expansion of data centers to support artificial intelligence technologies and the modernization of power grids are expected to drive copper demand growth outside of China, becoming the main catalysts for price increases.
Price explained that “China has already built out most of its infrastructure, including its power grid, so its activity will gradually decline in line with its needs,” predicting that Chinese copper demand in 2031 will be about 6% lower than in 2026.
He also projected that China’s share of global primary copper consumption will drop to 52%, or roughly 27 million tons in 2031, compared with 57% in 2026.
Meanwhile, US demand is expected to reach 2.2 million tons in 2031, up nearly 50% from 2026, while India’s consumption is expected to exceed 1 million tons, a rise of more than 30%.
Growing Western Resistance
Analysts also expect the new 50% US tariff on copper tubes and wires — imposed by President Donald Trump — to stimulate domestic production.
For China, however, these measures could mean losing one of its key export markets for copper products. According to Trade Data Monitor, the United States is China’s fourth-largest market for copper tube exports.
Washington imported 14.4 million tons of copper tubes from China last year, and shipments reached 8 million tons in the first seven months of this year — highlighting the potential market loss for Beijing.
Duncan Hobbs, Research Director at Concord Resources, said, “China’s output of manufactured goods, particularly those destined for export, is likely to slow due to increasing resistance from Western economies.”
These exports include copper wires used in power grids. A decade ago, the US Department of Energy found that 70% of the country’s transmission lines were over 25 years old.
Meanwhile, India is expanding its electricity network to support its goal of achieving 500 gigawatts of non-fossil-fuel-based energy by 2030.
Across Asia (excluding China), consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI) expects copper demand to rise by 25% to more than 9.2 million tons between 2025 and 2030.
For the power infrastructure segment — including electrical grids, data centers, and telecommunications — BMI forecasts a 35% increase in demand to 2.2 million tons, while Chinese companies are projected to see more modest growth of 4% and 11%, respectively.
Infrastructure Renewal in the West
Efforts to modernize electricity grids in Western nations are focused mainly on upgrading existing systems — a gradual and less copper-intensive process compared to building new networks from scratch, as China did.
Robert Edwards, Principal Analyst at metals consultancy CRU, said he had long expected China’s dominance in the copper market to fade, but massive Chinese investments in electric vehicles, renewable energy, and power networks have delayed that shift.
CRU now forecasts that China’s share of total global consumption of mined and recycled copper will decline to 57% of 31.36 million tons in 2030, down from 59% of 27.62 million tons this year.
“China’s demand growth potential is now limited,” Edwards concluded, “and we should expect more of the expansion to come from the rest of the world.”
As of 16:57 GMT, the US Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 98.8, hitting a high of 98.9 and a low of 98.5.
In US trading, December copper futures fell 1.4% to $4.96 per pound at 16:39 GMT.
