Bitcoin rose more than 2% over the past 24 hours, climbing back above $109,500 as traders positioned themselves ahead of Friday’s release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) — the week’s most closely watched economic event.
With most official economic data on hold due to the ongoing US government shutdown, investors expect the upcoming inflation report to be the only major indicator guiding markets this week.
Analysts at QCP Capital wrote in a Thursday report: “The only data point that really matters this week is Friday’s CPI, as it will be the sole reading the Federal Reserve sees before resuming its policy communications.”
The firm added that a softer-than-expected inflation reading could reinforce the “soft landing” narrative for the US economy and provide fresh momentum for Bitcoin prices.
“A 0.2% reading would support that narrative and keep Bitcoin’s upward trend intact,” the report said, noting that gold (GC=F) posted its biggest one-day drop since 2020 as the US dollar strengthened, while Bitcoin briefly spiked to $114,000 before pulling back.
Geopolitical Tensions Dominate, but Trade Talks Offer Hope
Despite persistent geopolitical tensions weighing on global risk appetite, reports of potential trade talks between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump brought some relief to markets.
The two leaders are expected to meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea later this month, in a meeting investors hope could ease trade and security frictions in the region.
Diverging Views on Bitcoin’s Path
Bitcoin has declined since reaching a record high above $126,270 on October 6, 2025.
John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at Ledn, believes the rally is over.
“The Bitcoin bull run is done!” he told Yahoo Finance UK. “I think we’ve completed the five-wave advance and are now entering a bear market that could last through the end of 2026.”
Glover added that while a retest of $124,000 is possible, he expects prices to trade lower overall in the coming months.
“I’m looking for a major correction into the $70,000–$80,000 range — perhaps even lower — and the final target will become clearer as prices evolve over the next few months.”
Institutional Demand Could Fuel Renewed Optimism
On the other hand, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, said Bitcoin could see another leg higher if short-term selling pressure eases.
“If current sellers step back, allowing institutional demand to play a larger role, Bitcoin could mirror gold’s 2025 rally,” Hougan wrote in a research note this week.
He pointed out that gold has gained roughly 57% in 2025, driven by surging central bank purchases that have more than doubled since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war — from around 467 tons annually to 1,080 tons, according to Metals Focus.
Hougan said this level of buying nearly matches demand from gold exchange-traded products (ETPs), which helps explain why gold has outperformed Bitcoin this year.
“If central banks are the main engine behind gold’s rally, it’s only natural that Bitcoin hasn’t risen at the same pace,” he added.
Despite strong demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional investors, Hougan believes cautious sentiment continues to limit gains: “Bitcoin hasn’t yet reached $200,000 despite robust inflows, because price-sensitive investors keep selling into every 10%–15% rally.”