Bitcoin fell to $115,000 during Monday trading, marking a sharp reversal after last week’s record highs, as expectations for aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve diminished and geopolitical risks weighed on investor appetite for high-risk assets.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last down 2% at $115,664.5 as of 01:58 AM Eastern Time (05:58 GMT).
It had climbed last week to a record above $124,000, but retreated after US producer price data came in hotter than expected, reigniting inflation concerns tied to tariffs.
Other digital currencies also slipped on Monday, with Ether extending losses away from its recent near-record highs.
Weak rate cut expectations and rising geopolitical risks weigh on the market
US producer price index data and stronger-than-expected import price data last week weakened hopes for a substantial Fed rate cut in September.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, expectations shifted from a half-point cut to a more modest 25-basis-point reduction.
Meanwhile, the Alaska summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin ended last week without an agreement on Ukraine.
Trump — who had previously pushed for a ceasefire — moved closer to Moscow’s position by supporting a full peace agreement first, which was seen as strengthening Putin’s stance.
Investors are awaiting further geopolitical developments, with Trump set to meet later today with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and several key European leaders in Washington.
The market remains cautious amid uncertainty over whether these talks will yield tangible progress or intensify risks, limiting demand for speculative assets like Bitcoin.
Gold prices rose on Monday as investors shifted toward safe havens ahead of this pivotal event.
Cryptocurrency prices today: losses extend to Bitcoin alternatives
Sharp losses extended across most alternative cryptocurrencies as Bitcoin retreated, amid broad selling pressure ahead of key events.
Ethereum (the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency) dropped 2.9% to $4,301.61 after coming close to record highs last week.
Ripple (the third-largest cryptocurrency) fell 4.3% to $2.98 on Monday.
How far could Bitcoin fall?
Bitcoin has seen a corrective pullback of about 8% since hitting a record high above $124,500 four days ago. It now faces risks of further downside due to a classic bearish reversal pattern.
Bitcoin drop below $100,000 remains possible
Bitcoin confirmed a bearish breakdown from a rising wedge pattern on the daily chart, according to analyst Captain Faibik.
Traditional analysts often view rising wedges as bearish reversal patterns that precede sharp declines after extended uptrends.
In Bitcoin’s case, this wedge had been forming since April, with progressively higher highs and lows converging toward the top.
The breakdown below the support line signals a test of former resistance levels that have turned into support, reflecting weakening momentum and growing selling pressure.
Analysts identified immediate support between $110,000 and $112,000, and losing this range could open the path toward $105,000–$108,000.
The decline could extend to the psychological zone of $98,000–$100,000 by September, a 20% drop from the recent peak, if selling accelerates.
Potential drop to $88,000
The price target for a rising wedge breakdown is usually measured by subtracting the maximum pattern height from the breakdown point.
Applying this to Bitcoin’s chart suggests a downside target around $88,000. However, this bearish scenario would be invalidated if Bitcoin holds above the 50-day EMA, which provided strong support during its latest rally of over 50% since April.
In that case, prices could rebound toward the wedge’s upper boundary near $125,000 by September.
Bitcoin double-top scenario hints at $94,750 level
Bitcoin’s weekly close reflects the possibility of forming a double-top pattern, similar to what occurred in 2021. This bearish reversal pattern is characterized by two successive peaks at nearly the same level, signaling weakening momentum.
In 2021, this pattern preceded a steep 77% decline, as Bitcoin dropped from around $69,000 to below $16,000 in the following months.
A similar setup now increases short-term risks unless prices reverse quickly, according to Swissblock analysts.
Bitcoin faces downside risks toward the 50-day EMA (red wave) around $94,750 by September if the double-top scenario plays out as it did in 2021.
