Gold prices declined in the European market on Friday, pulling back from a two-week high reached earlier during Asian trading. The drop came amid profit-taking activity and pressure from a rebound in US dollar levels in the foreign exchange market.
Despite the decline, the precious metal is on track to post its second consecutive weekly gain, supported by safe-haven demand amid rising trade tensions and growing expectations of a US interest rate cut in September.
Price Overview
• Gold Prices Today: Gold fell by approximately 0.5% to $3,381.23, down from the opening price of $3,397.13. It recorded an intraday high of $3,409.10 — the highest since July 23.
• On Thursday, gold rose 0.85%, resuming gains after a brief pause, marking its fourth increase in five days as part of a consolidation phase.
US Dollar
The US Dollar Index rose 0.25% on Friday, rebounding from a two-week low at 97.95, reflecting a recovery in the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.
President Donald Trump announced that he will nominate Stephen Miran, head of the Council of Economic Advisers, to fill the vacant seat at the Federal Reserve.
A Bloomberg News report revealed that Fed Governor Christopher Waller is now the leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell when his term expires on May 15, 2026.
Gold Futures
US gold futures for December delivery jumped 0.9% to $3,484.10, after hitting a record high of $3,534.10 per ounce. This widened the spread between futures prices in New York and spot prices to over $100.
The Financial Times reported on Thursday that the US had imposed tariffs on imports of one-kilogram gold bars, citing a letter from Customs and Border Protection.
The letter, dated July 31, stated that one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars must now be classified under a tariff code subject to higher duties — a move likely to impact Switzerland, the world’s top gold refining hub.
Weekly Performance
As of Friday’s settlement, gold prices are up about 0.55% for the week, putting the metal on course for its second straight weekly gain.
US Interest Rate Outlook
• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that the Federal Reserve may need to cut interest rates in the near term in response to slowing US economic growth.
• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Monday that with growing evidence of labor market weakness and no signs of sustained tariff-driven inflation, it is time to lower interest rates.
• Following these remarks, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that the odds of a 25 basis-point cut at the September meeting have increased from 88% to 94%, while odds of holding rates steady dropped from 12% to 6%.
• Expectations for a 25 basis-point rate cut in October also rose from 95% to 98%, with odds of no change falling from 5% to 2%.
• Investors are closely watching additional commentary from Fed officials throughout the day to reassess these probabilities.
Gold Market Outlook
Bryan Lan, Managing Director at Singapore-based GoldSilver Central, said that the tariffs on gold bars are likely to disrupt — or at least complicate — settlement processes among major banks. “This has already affected liquidity prices this morning, with gold prices spiking across the board,” he added.
SPDR Gold Trust
Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust — the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund — jumped by 6.3 metric tons on Thursday, marking the biggest daily increase since July 22. Total holdings rose to 959.09 metric tons, the highest since September 16, 2022.
