Jiangsu’s gross domestic product (GDP) now stands at 97.44 per cent of Guangdong’s, with the distance between the two provinces narrowing to 175.76 billion yuan (US$24.5 billion) in the first half of 2025 – compared to 191.62 billion yuan for the same period last year, according to data released by provincial authorities.
That marks the closest margin in years, threatening Guangdong’s decades-long dominance as China’s top provincial economy. The province, which borders Hong Kong, became the country’s first export powerhouse during the reform era.
“Jiangsu is more resilient due to its diversified industrial structure among different local cities, lower real estate dependence and smaller reliance on exports,” said Peng Peng, executive chairman of the Guangdong Society of Reform, a local think tank.
“External trade pressures also weigh on its [Guangdong’s] economy.”
Exports, a traditional pillar of the southern province’s economy, were down from 12.1 per cent growth in the first quarter of 2024 to just 1.1 per cent in the same period this year.
