China’s car shipments are projected to cool this year due to geopolitical tensions following two years of rapid growth, while US tariffs will saddle the nation’s auto industry with an additional US$46 billion in export costs, according to management consultancy AlixPartners.
Auto exports would climb by about 4 per cent to 6.7 million units in 2025, the firm said in a report on Thursday. Shipments grew 23 per cent last year to 6.4 million units after producers boosted sales to Russia and Belarus by 28 per cent, and to the Middle East by 61 per cent, to mitigate export curbs in North America and Europe, it said.
“China’s car sales to Russia and Belarus have more than doubled over the past five years, insulating it in part from the volatility of tariffs,” said Andrew Bergbaum, global leader of the automotive and industrial practice.
“Many countries have increased tariffs on Chinese automobiles since 2024, with the US representing the highest tariff of [up to] 245 per cent,” AlixPartners said. Chinese EV makers also face a 100 per cent tariff in Canada, 35 per cent in Brazil and 17.8 per cent to 45.3 per cent in Europe.
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Tariffs would increase the cost of China’s automotive exports to the US by US$46 billion, the report said, with car producers taking a US$7.2 billion hit on shipments, and auto-parts suppliers shouldering US$38.8 billion.
