Chinese trade to U.S. could drop by $485 billion: Tariff simulator

Exports from China to the U.S. could fall by close to a half-trillion dollars ($485 billion) between now and 2027, according to a tariff simulator that forecasts shifts in global trade.

Trade talks between the U.S. and China resumed on Monday in Stockholm.

Given China’s dominant position in trade with the U.S., that decline will be larger than the total decline in global exports to the U.S. when all nations are factored into the model.

The forecast is based on the latest tariffs implemented between the U.S. and China, and how global trade may be reconfigured in response. Currently, the U.S. is charging a combined 51% in tariffs on Chinese goods, while U.S. exports to China face 32.6% tariffs. The U.S. has threatened far higher tariffs on Chinese goods if no deal is reached by August 12, which could take tariff rates to as high as 145%.

U.S. government data shows a total Chinese imports level of $438.9 billion in 2024.

After recent deals with Japan and the EU setting tariff rates at 15%, President Trump indicated on Monday that the baseline global tariff rate will likely come in between 15%-20%.

“Countries will have a natural tendency to rewire their trade relationships away from the U.S. in many of these scenarios,” said Cesar Hidalgo, economics professor at the Toulouse School of Economics and founder of Datawheel, which built the OEC Tariff Simulator.

Countries linked to the Chinese manufacturing economy will also experience U.S. export weakness. Vietnam, a country that has benefited from the “China Plus One” supply chain strategy which enabled manufacturers to avoid some Chinese goods tariffs, could see exports to the U.S. decline by $102 billion by 2027.

South Korea is also forecast by the tariff simulator to experience a decline in exports to the U.S. of $49 billion.

Goods representing significant portions of these declines include broadcasting equipment (-$59.2 billion) and computers (-$58.7 billion) from China, and cars from South Korea (-$13.5 billion), according to the analysis.

At the same time, even as the U.S. threatens additional tariffs on North American trading partners and has so far failed to secure a deal with Canada, the U.S. will import more from Canada (+$128 billion) and Mexico (+$77 billion), as well as from the United Kingdom (+$23 billion), which recently signed a trade deal with the U.S.

While the current level of Chinese tariffs and the EU tariffs formalized in the trade deal announced on Sunday, will lead to a U.S. export increase by 12% in 2027, the decline in Chinese goods coming into the U.S. has already begun.

Currently, ocean freight data is tracking a decrease in Chinese exports entering the U.S. during the trade war. When tariffs were decreased from a threatened 145% to 51% in June during a continuing trade war pause, some retailers and manufacturers pulled forward freight, which arrived in early July, but that rise in container volume at the Port of Los Angeles was short-lived, according to recent data.

According to the weekly vessel report from Captain J. Kipling (Kip) Louttit, executive director of Marine Exchange of Southern California & Vessel Traffic Service, an uptick to 66.8 vessels per day the first half of July has reversed during the second half of the month. Incoming vessels are down to 58.7 per day in the past weekly period, with two days earlier last week when vessel visits declined to 55.

“This is a pretty solid leading indicator of the dip in container ship arrivals in the next one to two weeks,” wrote Louttit.

Retail groups have repeatedly warned that the cycle of tariff threats and delays only adds to uncertainty, and a hesitancy of moving forward with orders.

China will also be pulling back on its acceptance of U.S. exports, with a decline of $101 billion through 2027, according to the tariff simulator, with the biggest U.S. export losers including soybeans (-$10 billion), integrated circuits (-$7.44 billion), crude petroleum (-$7.33 billion), petroleum gas (-$6.36 billion) and cars (-$5.09 billion).

During the latest trade war with the U.S., China has been engaging in trade expansion talks with ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries, among others. The tariff simulator projects Russia winning the lion’s share of increased trade with China, at $69.8 billion. Other countries that China will expand its trade relations with include Vietnam ($34.4 billion), Saudi Arabia ($28 billion), South Korea ($27.9 billion), Australia ($24.6 billion) and Japan ($21.4 billion).

Ikea, Walmart U.S-China trade war impact

According to the Bills of Lading, which are the receipts of containers detailing company import and export information and the country of origin of products, Ikea imports the most shipments from China to the U.S. (14.6%), followed by Walmart (8.6%), Costco (5.8%), Dole Fresh Fruit (5.52%) and Amazon (3.83%).

Furniture is the top ranked item imported by Ikea (18.2%). Light synthetic cotton fabrics are the top-ranked import by Walmart (64%).

Among U.S. states, Texas and California will bear the brunt of a decline in trade with China. Texas is the top state in the U.S. for exports to China, at $954 million, led by electrical machinery and electronics ($222 million), mineral fuels, mineral oils and distilled products ($204 million), and machinery, mechanical appliances and parts ($201 million).

California ranks second among states, with optical, photo & film equipment and medical instruments as the state’s top exports to China, at $179 million. Electrical machinery and electronics ($125 million) and machinery, mechanical appliances and parts ($93 million) are the other top exports from California to China. Oregon is No. 3 among states, with $458 million of its exports to China, led by electronic machinery and electronics ($397 million).

Former Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez said on CNBC that the current trade disruptions will be a mere blip in the history of global commerce, but warned, “Protectionism doesn’t protect. It strips a nation of its vitality.”