Copper consumption in the United States and India is expected to emerge as a key driver of global demand over the next decade, after decades of dominance by China — where growth in copper use is beginning to slow.
China’s industrial boom and infrastructure expansion fueled a rally that pushed copper prices above 10,000 dollars per metric ton, compared with about 1,500 dollars twenty-five years ago.
While China will remain the world’s largest copper market throughout the next decade and beyond, analysts expect other regions and factors to play a growing role in influencing demand and prices.
They note that shifting regional policies, infrastructure investment cycles, and geopolitical transitions will require producers, consumers, traders, and investors to adapt to a market driven by multiple forces — rather than a single dominant one as before.
Tom Price, an analyst at Panmure Liberum, said: “China’s pace of copper consumption and stockpiling will slow, and we’ll return to the traditional demand drivers such as replacement and renewal cycles outside China.”
He added that the full impact of these changes has yet to be seen, but that policy shifts in the United States and other countries to encourage domestic manufacturing will likely curb China’s export and industrial activity, reducing its demand for refined copper — estimated at about 15 million tons this year.
Meanwhile, data centers needed to support artificial intelligence technologies, along with upgrades to power grids, are expected to drive copper demand outside China, becoming the main engine for prices.
Price explained: “China has already built out its infrastructure, including its power grid, so its activity will gradually decline in line with its needs,” predicting that Chinese demand in 2031 will be about 6% lower than in 2026.
He forecast that China will account for 52% of global primary copper consumption — about 27 million tons — in 2031, down from 57% in 2026.
By contrast, US demand is projected to reach 2.2 million tons by 2031, up nearly 50% from 2026, while India’s demand is expected to exceed one million tons, a rise of more than 30%.
Growing Resistance from Western Nations
Analysts expect that the new 50% tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on imports of copper pipes and wires will boost domestic production.
For China, these measures are likely to result in the loss of one of its key export markets for copper products. Data from Trade Data Monitor shows that the United States is the fourth-largest market for Chinese copper pipe exports.
Last year, Washington imported 14.4 million tons of copper pipes from China, and during the first seven months of this year, imports reached eight million tons — highlighting the scale of the market Beijing risks losing.
Duncan Hobbs, Research Director at Concord Resources, said: “China’s manufacturing of export-oriented goods is likely to slow due to growing resistance from Western countries.”
These exports include copper wires used in power grids. In its last review of energy infrastructure a decade ago, the US Department of Energy found that 70% of the nation’s transmission lines were more than 25 years old.
At the same time, India is expanding its power transmission network to support its goal of achieving 500 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel energy capacity by 2030.
Across Asia (excluding China), consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI) expects copper demand to increase by 25% to more than 9.2 million tons between 2025 and 2030.
For electrical infrastructure — including power grids, data centers, and telecommunications — BMI forecasts demand growth of 35% to 2.2 million tons, compared with more modest increases of 4% and 11% projected for Chinese firms, respectively.
Infrastructure Renewal in the West
Efforts to modernize power grids in Western economies are primarily focused on upgrading existing infrastructure — a slow, gradual process that is less copper-intensive than building entirely new networks, as China did.
Robert Edwards, Principal Analyst at metals consultancy CRU, said he had long expected China’s influence over the copper market to fade, but that this did not happen earlier due to Beijing’s heavy investments in electric vehicles, renewable energy, and power grids.
CRU now expects China’s share of global consumption of mined and recycled copper to fall to 57% of 31.36 million tons by 2030, down from 59% of 27.62 million tons this year.
Edwards concluded, “China’s demand growth potential is limited, and we should see more expansion in the rest of the world.”
In US trading on Monday, copper futures for December delivery rose 0.9% to 5.01 dollars per pound as of 17:00 GMT.
