KARACHI: Initial cotton arrival in Pakistan have improved as per the latest report released by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA), but heat waves, floods and water shortages could bring total production for the year down to below 5 million bales, the lowest in the history of Pakistan, experts say.
Referring to a recent US Department of Agriculture report, Sajid Mahmood, Head of Technology Transfer Department at the Central Cotton Research Institute Multan highlighted that cotton acreage nationwide had declined by 7.5 percent, with the steepest drop recorded in Sindh. According to him, overall production estimates have been revised downward to 4.8 million bales for the whole of 2025, which is nearly 4 percent less than last year.
Meanwhile Dr Yusuf Zafar, Vice President of Pakistan Central Cotton Committee (PCCC) and former chairman of Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC), told Business Recorder that expected production will be around 4.35 million bales.
In both cases, production would be a record-low for the country and a fall of roughly 70% when compared to the record-high of 14.813 million bales achieved in the 2011-12 season.
A report from earlier this year also found that Pakistan’s cotton production dropped to 5.6 million bales last season, marking the lowest output in 30 years.
Talking to Business Recorder Mahmood said that while the PCGA report is encouraging, it would be premature to conclude that overall production will also remain higher this season as weather patterns and flood damage are severely affecting the crop.
Challenges abound
Highlighting the challenges facing the crop, he noted that extreme weather like heavy rains, heat waves and floods, coupled with water shortages have placed severe pressure on this vital cash crop.
The cotton curl leaf virus and pink bollworm infestations have also inflicted damage while reduced application of fertilizers – particularly phosphorus, Sulphate of Potash (SOP), urea and nitrogenous fertilizers – has further compounded the situation.
He believes that although fruiting initially appeared promising the heat waves of June and July, coupled with water scarcity, lead to fruit shedding and stunted plant growth.
Floods have further aggravated the situation. According to cautious estimates, cotton production in Punjab could decline by 35 percent.
To date, crops in over 2,100 villages have been destroyed, causing billions of rupees in agricultural losses. Thousands of acres of cotton in Pakpattan, Vehari, Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur and Rajanpur have been submerged.
Southern Punjab holds a pivotal role in national cotton output, making the losses particularly significant.
When it comes to the situation in Sindh, it is also concerning, with both yield and quality impacted. Owing to water scarcity, only 65 percent of the sowing target was achieved this year, affecting both quantity and quality of production.
Thus while the PCGA report indicates that early arrivals and stock positions are stronger than last year, climate change, flooding and pest attacks make it clear that total production for the 2024-25 season is likely to decline, with direct consequences for the national economy and the textile sector.
Ginning factories and stock levels
Regarding ginning factories, Mahmood said 299 factories are currently operational, compared to 272 last year.
In Punjab, 130 factories are active, representing a 30 percent increase while in Sindh the number stands at 169, a slight decline of 1.74 percent.
Stock levels have shown a remarkable improvement, reaching 200,700 bales compared to just 53,564 bales at the same time last year, an increase of 274.69 percent. However deliveries to the textile sector this year totaled 1,134,932 bales, compared to 1,171,982 bales last year, reflecting a decline of about 3.16 percent.
Future success of the sector will depend on how well farmers and relevant institutions work together, learn from past experience and manage the remaining stages of the crop more effectively to maximize cotton production.
There are some positive developments despite such a dismal situation. A very large area under early (March/ April) cotton season in Punjab was sown with cotton, resulting in higher productivity of 20 maunds phutti/ acre of first pick.
However, the roaring floods now entering Sindh are likely to change these gains.
What can be done?
Experts say that by learning from these experiences, Pakistan can plan better for the next cotton season.
They also said it is essential to complete the merger process of PCCC and PARC at the earliest, which, according to the decision of the Cabinet Division, was scheduled for completion by June 30, 2025.
Similarly, under the agreement signed between PCCC and All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) on July 9, 2025, at the Ministry of National Food Security and Research, the textile mills have not yet paid even the first installment of the outstanding cotton cess.
The delay in the merger process and in the settlement of cotton cess arrears will hinder cotton research activities and efforts for enhancing production at the federal level, it was noted.
