Federal Reserve policymakers appear ready to begin a series of interest rate cuts this month to support a labor market that is becoming increasingly fragile, after a government report on Friday showed job growth nearly stalled and unemployment rose in August.
Although Fed Chair Jerome Powell will likely tread carefully with only 22,000 jobs added last month amid lower immigration rates, the rise in unemployment to 4.3%—the highest since October 2021—will sound alarm bells. With employers hiring at a very slow pace, Powell said last month that any increase in layoffs—still at historically low levels—could trigger a sharp jump in unemployment.
Friday’s data also showed that more than a quarter of the unemployed have been looking for work since at least February, just weeks after President Donald Trump began his second term in the White House. Unemployment among African Americans—who tend to be more vulnerable to labor market swings—rose to 7.5%.
The Fed will receive fresh inflation data next week as policymakers prepare for their September 16–17 meeting. Consumer prices are expected to accelerate further as Trump’s tariffs put greater upward pressure on the cost of basic goods.
Nevertheless, weaker-than-expected jobs data has pushed concerns about labor market deterioration to the top of the Fed’s priority list. The central bank has kept its benchmark rate in the 4.25%–4.50% range all year.
Analysts at Bank of America said after the jobs report: “The August jobs report should cement the Fed’s shift from worrying about inflation to focusing on labor market weakness.” They now expect a quarter-point cut in September and another in December, with the benchmark rate falling to 3.00%–3.25% by the end of next year.
Why Did Unemployment Rise?
In recent months, unemployment remained low, but not for ideal reasons; the main factor was shrinking labor force participation.
In August, however, unemployment rose partly because more people reentered the labor market to look for jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The latest household survey data showed the labor force, which had contracted for three straight months, grew by 436,000 people in August. Labor force participation also rose to 62.3% from 62.2%.
While most of this growth came from people classified as employed, the rise in the number of unemployed was largely due to those reentering the labor market and actively seeking work.
Jennifer Timmerman, senior investment strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, wrote in a Friday note: “In fact, the average job search duration fell to a three-month low, which is a bright spot in what was otherwise a weak jobs report.”
Trump’s Pressure
At the annual Jackson Hole symposium two weeks ago, Powell hinted at a possible September cut by highlighting downside risks in the labor market, though he also noted that a stable jobs environment would allow the Fed to “proceed cautiously.”
Kevin Hassett, the White House economic adviser, said Friday that the latest jobs report could push the Fed to consider a larger cut this month. This view aligns with Trump’s persistent demands for lower borrowing costs, part of his growing efforts to assert control over the central bank. Hassett is among the names Trump has said he is considering to succeed Powell when his term ends in May.
Even so, markets still see an outsized cut this month as unlikely. Futures tied to interest rates show only about a 10% chance of a half-point cut in September, up from zero before the jobs report.
Most expectations remain centered on a quarter-point cut, with similar moves likely in subsequent meetings, and nearly a 50-50 chance that the benchmark short-term rate will be a full percentage point lower by January compared with today.
Not all analysts ruled out a stronger response. Simon Dangoor, head of fixed-income macro strategies at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said: “Today’s data suggests there’s a risk the Fed begins easing at a faster pace than the cautious path Powell outlined at Jackson Hole.”
