According to a recent report from an NBC affiliate in Montana titled “Drill, Baby, Drill”, US gasoline prices could fall below 3 dollars a gallon by the end of 2025. The report links the recent decline in gasoline prices to President Trump’s pro-energy policies.
The article begins: “Oil and gas production has recently seen a sharp rise thanks to President Donald Trump’s pro-energy policies.”
Before assessing recent production trends, it is worth reviewing the key events that have shaped US oil output over the past 24 years.
During George W. Bush’s presidency, oil production continued the gradual decline that had begun in the early 1970s. But producers were perfecting the combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, which soon led to the “shale boom.” Oil prices climbed steadily, reaching 100 dollars a barrel in February 2008, creating a powerful incentive for fracking.
Barack Obama’s presidency saw the largest expansion of oil and gas production in US history. Despite being viewed as hostile to fossil fuels, technology and market forces drove output sharply higher. An exception came in late 2014, when Saudi Arabia led OPEC in boosting supply despite falling prices to undercut US shale producers, triggering a collapse from above 100 dollars to under 30 dollars per barrel in 2015–16. Shale producers adapted, cut costs, and survived. By late 2016, OPEC changed course, forming the historic OPEC+ alliance with Russia and others to cut production and restore prices, which helped US production rebound.
When Donald Trump took office in January 2017, US oil production returned to growth, surpassing the 1970 monthly output record in October of his first year. Trump enacted pro-oil policies, but the OPEC+ cuts that lifted prices were the dominant factor behind renewed growth. It is often overlooked that higher oil prices meant average US gasoline prices actually rose during Trump’s first three years in office—until the COVID-19 pandemic.
The pandemic briefly drove oil prices negative and cut US production by 3 million barrels per day in April–May 2020. That was the only time during Trump’s first term when gasoline fell below 2 dollars a gallon.
By the time Joe Biden took office in January 2021, oil output had recovered to 11.2 million barrels per day, still 1.8 million below pre-pandemic highs. Growth resumed in Biden’s second year, with record oil and gas production in his final two years. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed prices higher and encouraged further US output, underscoring the importance of global forces over domestic politics.
Across the past 24 years, macro factors—such as fracking, OPEC+ decisions, weather shocks, and demand cycles—have outweighed presidential policies in shaping output and prices.
Trump’s Second Term and 2025 Trends
Comparing the first seven months of Trump’s second term to Biden’s years, the data show no sudden surge. Output in February 2025 rebounded from a weather-related dip, similar to earlier recoveries under Biden. Monthly highs in 2023 and 2024 under Biden exceeded Trump’s pre-pandemic records, and 2025 is on pace for another annual record, though growth is slowing. Rig counts have declined this year, contradicting claims of a drilling boom.
Natural gas shows a similar long-term upward trajectory, with no sudden acceleration in 2025.
Why Are Gasoline Prices Falling?
Gasoline prices are down this year mainly because global oil prices have fallen. Supply is rising: OPEC+ will fully unwind its voluntary 2.2 million barrels per day cuts by September 2025, a year earlier than planned. Meanwhile, the US, Brazil, and Guyana are all boosting output. Global supply is expected to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2025, outpacing demand.
On the demand side, consumption has disappointed in China, India, and Brazil, while OECD demand is flat, with Japan hitting multi-decade lows and US GDP growth slowing to just 1.4%.
Inventories have risen for five straight months, reaching a 46-month high of 7.8 billion barrels worldwide—classic evidence of oversupply, often preceding price downturns.
Conclusion
Falling gasoline prices today are not the product of any single politician’s actions, but of a global surge in supply colliding with weak demand. Historically, lower oil prices were a clear win for the US when it was the world’s largest importer. But today, as a net exporter, the US faces a mixed impact: cheaper gasoline for consumers, but weaker revenues for a key industry and wider trade deficits.
In short, gasoline prices are shaped by global supply, demand, and investment trends, not White House slogans. Political claims oversimplify; the real story is larger, global, and far more complex.
