President Donald Trump’s decision to pause tariffs on trading partners around the globe may have eased some of the market’s worst fears, but the big swings in stocks and bonds that have continued in the markets match a pervasive feeling of uncertainty inside the supply chain amid whipsaw conditions in global trade.
At least for now, though, some orders around the world that were paused are surging.
The tariffs with China, the biggest trading partner of the U.S., remain in effect and are now at 145%. But across other Asian and European nations that are key manufacturing partners, the fluid situation is leading importers to rethink decisions that were the correct one just a day ago.
“We started seeing a ton of bookings cancel at origin over the ocean as early as last week and as we got closer to the tariff date on April 9 we saw more cancellations,” said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain for ITS Logistics. “But with this recent announcement on the pause on tariffs with the exception of China, we may have orders re-booked from those regions.”
The European Union said it will pause the adoption of its retaliatory tariffs on a swathe of U.S. goods for 90 days, a day after Trump’s decision.
01 April 2025, Bremen, Bremerhaven: Cars parked on the premises of BLG Autoterminal Bremerhaven. T
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Andrew Abbott, CEO of Atlantic Container Line, which serves the Europe/North American trade, said that freight “holds” as a result of the tariffs have now been released and bookings have skyrocketed as a result of the tariff pause.
“We are expecting a surge of freight during this pause,” Abbott said. “We are seeing order in everything from construction equipment, engines, truck parts, dinnerware, cranes, agriculture equipment and booze among a lot others. The ships are filling up.”
Other logistics providers told CNBC they are seeing a similar rush.
Abbott says the companies that put shipments on hold now feel like they are being rewarded.
“Even the British car guys have booked for May sailings,” Abbott said.
Still a ‘super cautious’ moment in global trade
Uncertainty remains high in a world where trade decisions hinge on the micromanagement of daily headlines. Shipping executives remain on edge, with Mexico a good example. There was no change in the tariffs policy partially in effect on Mexico and Canada.
“People have uncertainty, and uncertainty creates fear. People are starting to send some imports and some exports to the United States, let’s say, the urgent products, but the rest is on hold,” said Simon Cohen, CEO of Henco Global, in an interview before Trump’s tariffs pause was announced.
Cohen said retail exports from Mexico to the United States are on hold. “Sales are just not increasing,” he said.
Based on 2024 U.S. Customs data collected and analyzed by ImportGenius and applied to the new tariffs in effect, the daily tariff collection is now $345.5 million from Mexico imports. Daily tariff collections on Canadian imports under the same metrics show $282 million.
“It’s status quo right now and the new normal for the supply chain is uncertainty,” Brashier said.
Cohen cited the automotive industry and aerospace industry as examples. “What we’re seeing is the industry is just holding a little and they are just waiting for the news just to move forward,” said Cohen.
For example, Volkswagen AG halted rail shipments of vehicles from Mexico.
China’s investment in manufacturing in Mexico has been scrutinized by both the Biden and Trump administration, and Cohen said Chinese exports to Mexico remain in limbo.
“Chinese companies are holding everything up again,” Cohen said. “They are waiting, to see what’s going to happen in the near future. Chinese companies are just doing business as usual with Mexico, not increasing anything.”
The trade uncertainty closer to home may have a magnified impact on border state economies, such as New Mexico.
“2024 was a record year for us in attracting new companies, investments, and jobs,” said Jerry Pacheco, president of the Border Industrial Association (BIA). “Additionally in 2024, New Mexico’s exports to the world rose by 140%. In 2024, our exports to Mexico rose 101%.”
Pacheco said the Santa Teresa industrial base, which the BIA represents, now accounts for approximately 69% of New Mexico’s total exports to the world.
“The tariff situation has the potential to halt this momentum,” he said. “There have been auto components manufacturers that have pulled excess supplies from Mexico to secure their supply chains and to avoid potential tariffs.”
The evolving trade war situation “deeply impacts deeply in the entire supply chain,” Cohen said. “So we need to be super cautious and think twice before moving forward.”
