Gold is having an exceptional year in 2025, rising more than 60% since the start of the year — marking one of the strongest bull runs in the precious metal’s history — driven by a mix of geopolitical tensions, shifting central bank policies, and surging global demand for safe-haven assets.
If this momentum continues through December, it will be gold’s best annual performance since 1979, when prices soared more than 120% amid the global energy crisis and skyrocketing inflation in the United States.
Since the beginning of this year, the precious metal has repeatedly broken record highs, surpassing the psychological barriers of $3,000 and $4,000 per ounce for the first time in history.
Bull Market
This year’s gold bull market is fueled by several interlinked factors, most notably the unexpected political and economic shifts in major global economies.
The sharp escalation in trade tensions between the United States and China, along with growing expectations of US interest rate cuts in the coming months after a prolonged period of monetary tightening, have also played a key role.
Strong central bank buying — particularly from China, India, and Turkey — has further boosted global demand for gold as a hedge against currency risks and sovereign debt.
US Dollar Weakness
The decline of the US dollar from multi-year highs has been one of the main drivers behind gold’s surge, as investors seek to diversify their portfolios away from dollar-denominated assets.
At the same time, several Federal Reserve officials have hinted at a potential shift toward looser monetary policy by the end of the year, lowering US bond yields and restoring gold’s appeal as a preferred investment.
Geopolitical Tensions
Recent geopolitical developments in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have also fueled demand for gold as a safe haven.
Every escalation in conflict or political uncertainty drives investors toward stable assets that preserve value during turmoil — and gold remains the top choice in such times.
Bullish Forecasts
• Suki Cooper, Head of Metals Research at Standard Chartered Bank, said: “We expect gold to average $4,488 in 2026, with additional upside risks stemming from broader structural factors supporting the market.”
• HSBC raised its average gold price forecast for 2025 by $100 to $3,455 per ounce and projected that prices could reach $5,000 per ounce in 2026.
• Analysts at Bank of America and Société Générale now also expect gold to hit $5,000 per ounce in 2026.
• Goldman Sachs lifted its December 2026 gold forecast to $4,900 per ounce from $4,300, citing strong inflows from Western exchange-traded funds and sustained central bank purchases.
