The International Criminal Court’s ruling that Rodrigo Duterte is too politically connected to be trusted on interim release – citing his entrenched networks and even a “joke” from his daughter about breaking him out – has entwined the former president’s legal predicament with the political dynamics shaping the 2028 race.
Analysts told This Week in Asia that the decision has narrowed the 80-year-old’s room for political manoeuvre while potentially strengthening, under some circumstances, the positioning of his daughter Sara Duterte-Carpio, the current vice-president.
In a forty-page decision delivered on Friday, the ICC’s Appeals Chamber ordered Duterte to remain in detention in The Hague as he awaits arraignment for crimes against humanity linked to his anti-drug campaign – a crackdown that, according to official police data, killed more than 6,000 alleged drug suspects, although human rights groups and the court’s own filings argue the true toll could be as high as 30,000.
Duterte did not appear during the hearing, with counsel Nicolas Kaufman attending on his behalf.
The former leader had been set for arraignment on September 23 after being arrested in Manila and flown to the Netherlands on March 11. Kaufman then filed an urgent plea for interim release, which the pre-trial chamber rejected on September 26 before the matter was elevated to the Appeals Chamber.
