U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Monday as investors awaited retail sales data and looked ahead to a big week.
At 4:41 a.m. ET, The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was down more than one basis point to 4.294%, while the 2-year Treasury yield was up less than a basis point at 4.023%.
One basis point is equal to 0.01% and yields move inversely to prices.
Investors will parse through retail sales data for February on Monday which will show the total value of the sale of retail goods and services in the U.S. and is a key indicator for the health of the U.S. economy.
The report, which will be published at 7:30 a.m. ET, will provide clarity on the state of the consumer, as investors look for signs that the economy will remain resilient. Retail sales are forecast to have increased by 0.6% in February, according to economists polled by Dow Jones.
Recession fears have been heightened recently as investors grapple with U.S. President Donald Trump’s fast-changing tariff policies, as well as growing signs of economic weakness.
To add to worries, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that there are “no guarantees” that a recession won’t happen.
All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting on Wednesday, where officials will decide on whether to cut interest rates. It is widely expected that the Fed will hold interest rates steady, with traders pricing in a 99% chance that interest rates will remain unchanged, per the CME Group FedWatch tool.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has reiterated this year that the central bank is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, but investors will pay close attention to his post-meeting comments for any hints about signs of weakness in the economy, and shifts in monetary policy.
