U.S. Treasury yields ticked higher on Wednesday as investors closely monitored discussions on the budget bill and federal deficit, which is particularly contentious after Moody’s lowered the U.S.’ credit rating.
At 3:53 a.m. ET, the 30-year Treasury yield was up over 4 basis points to 5.016%. The 10-year yield was more than 4 basis points higher at 4.528%. The 2-year yield advanced just over 2 basis points, reaching 3.994%.
One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.
Investors are keeping an eye on discussions around U.S. President Donald Trump’s budget bill as some Republicans said they wouldn’t support the bill without deductions for state and local taxes. The bill is set to increase the U.S. government’s debt, which has become a cause for alarm in the past week.
“When it comes to the near term, all eyes are now on the tax bill that the Trump administration is seeking to pass through Congress, as the final agreement will go a long way to determining how big the US deficit becomes in the years ahead,” Deutsche Bank analysts remarked in a note.
On Friday, Moody’s downgraded the U.S. government’s credit rating to the second-highest tier, putting it in line with all other major rating agencies, and highlighted the increasing burden of financing the government’s ballooning budget deficit. That sent the 30-year Treasury yield surging past 5% on Monday, signaling the second major bond market sell-off in a month.
Bridgewater Associates founder and billionaire Ray Dalio added on Monday that Moody’s downgrade poses a greater threat to U.S. Treasurys than realized, as the credit agency isn’t considering the risk of the federal government printing money to pay its debt.
“You should know that credit ratings understate credit risks because they only rate the risk of the government not paying its debt,” Dalio said in a post on social media platform X.
“They don’t include the greater risk that the countries in debt will print money to pay their debts thus causing holders of the bonds to suffer losses from the decreased value of the money they’re getting (rather than from the decreased quantity of money they’re getting),” Dalio added.
Investors will also keep an eye out for housing data, including the 30-year mortgage rate on Wednesday, existing home sales data for April on Thursday, and April data on new home sales on Friday.
