As the August 8 deadline set by US President Donald Trump for the Kremlin to halt fighting in Ukraine approaches, Washington is ramping up economic pressure on Moscow — and has found a new target: Russian oil sales to China.
Curbing the volume of Russian oil purchased by China has become an unexpected point of contention in the ongoing trade talks between the US and China in Stockholm, where both sides are trying to resolve multiple disputes to avoid steep tariffs and reach a broader trade agreement.
Frustrated with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rejection of past mediation attempts to end the war in Ukraine, Washington hopes to gain additional leverage by cutting off billions of dollars in revenue from Moscow.
“The US administration has come to understand just how crucial Russian oil sales to China are,” said Dennis Wilder, former senior White House advisor on China under President George W. Bush, in an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. “Without those sales, it’s fair to say the Russian economy might have already collapsed.”
But persuading Beijing to comply with the US request has proven difficult. Chinese officials have refused to reduce the country’s oil purchases during ongoing talks. In response, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent floated the possibility of 100% tariffs.
In a statement published last week on the platform X, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the threat of additional tariffs: “China will always ensure the security of its energy supply in ways that serve its national interests. Coercion and pressure will achieve nothing. China will firmly defend its sovereignty, security, and development interests.”
Former officials and energy analysts who spoke to RFE/RL said that while China is unlikely to stop buying Russian oil altogether, it may be willing to scale back purchases temporarily as a goodwill gesture — particularly as Beijing and Washington try to finalize a trade deal that could pave the way for a potential summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, likely in October.
“Beijing might decide to quietly trim its monthly imports of Russian oil,” said Wilder, “but I don’t expect a full cut or any official announcement if it does.”
Will China Stop Buying Russian Oil?
Washington’s success in convincing Beijing to scale back its Russian oil purchases depends on the outcome of complex trade negotiations underway in Sweden, which face a deadline of August 12 for reaching an agreement.
In addition to pressure on Russian oil, Washington has also asked China to halt its imports of Iranian oil, which remains under US sanctions. Iran currently ships more than 90% of its oil exports to China.
Analysts estimate that Russia supplies roughly one-fifth of China’s total oil imports.
Trump has also intensified pressure on India, which has alternated with China as the top buyer of Russian oil since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
In an August 4 post on Truth Social, Trump said he would “significantly” raise tariffs on India over its purchases of Russian oil, after previously threatening a 25% tariff on Indian goods.
Curbing Chinese and Indian imports of Russian oil would have real financial consequences for Moscow, but analysts note that Beijing also holds leverage over Washington.
The US administration is currently urging China to buy more American goods — including advanced US technology. Trump and Bessent have also called on China to ease conditions for American companies operating in the country and to increase purchases of US energy.
However, China has also leveraged its control over the supply of rare earth minerals — a group of elements essential for everything from EV batteries to advanced military technologies — to extract concessions from Washington.
This was evident in July, when the US eased restrictions on exports of aircraft engines and Nvidia’s H20 AI chips in exchange for Beijing lifting its export curbs on rare earths.
Applying excessive pressure on the oil issue could undermine progress made in US-China trade negotiations.
“Beijing has shown that its rare earth export restrictions are a powerful weapon,” said Maria Shagina, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, in an interview with RFE/RL. “The US administration won’t want to jeopardize this fragile détente.”
What Leverage Does Washington Have Against China?
Beijing may also be reluctant to take any steps that could harm Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.
China is one of Moscow’s closest allies. Putin and Xi declared a “no limits partnership” just before the full-scale invasion in February 2022. While Beijing has refrained from providing lethal military aid, Chinese firms have supplied most of the dual-use goods that have enabled Moscow to replenish missiles, drones, and other munitions throughout the war.
In July, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas that China could not accept a Russian defeat in the war, as it would allow Washington to shift focus entirely to China. The statement was first reported by the South China Morning Post and later confirmed by RFE/RL.
Analysts say a bipartisan Senate bill could also become a pressure tool in US negotiations with China.
The proposed legislation would impose tariffs of up to 500% on countries that support Russia’s war machine by purchasing its oil and gas — with China and India as primary targets. However, enforcing such measures — if passed — would mark a sharp escalation in tensions.
In the meantime, Beijing is weighing its options. While it considers trimming Russian oil imports, it is also trying to entice the US administration with promises to boost investments in the US and increase imports of American energy and agricultural products.
Joe Webster, an expert on China-Russia energy relations at the Atlantic Council, said it is more likely that China will raise its purchases of US energy rather than cut back on Russian oil.
“Increasing US energy imports is a straightforward step that China can take easily,” he said. “Reducing Russian imports is a far greater challenge — one that would do real damage to Russia, and Beijing clearly doesn’t want to see Moscow lose the war.”
Still, even that move might be off the table.
Chinese officials have long feared that the US and its allies could choke off the country’s economy by cutting access to foreign oil. This has driven China to invest hundreds of billions of dollars to boost domestic production and build the world’s largest electric vehicle industry.
“Beijing doesn’t want to depend on anyone — not Russia, and certainly not the United States,” Webster said. “So this request will be met with hesitation.”
