SCUNTHORPE, England (AP) — Tucking into tea and cake in the spring sunshine, Nigel Farage glows with anticipation and big ambitions.
The man who helped drag Britain out of the European Union wants to displace the Conservatives as country’s main party on the right, challenge left-of-center Labour for power and ultimately reach the prime minister’s office.
That seems like a longshot for the hard-right politician whose Reform UK party holds just four of the 650 seats in the House of Commons. But Reform has surged in opinion polls, and sees Thursday’s local elections in England as a pivot point in its quest to transform British politics.
“This is one of the big hurdles that we have to clear en route to the next general election,” Farage told The Associated Press about the upcoming vote at a cafe in the steel town of Scunthorpe. And when that national election comes, “we intend to completely change British history and win it.”
Reform on the rise
Reform got about 14% of the vote in last year’s national election, but polls now suggest its support equals or surpasses that of governing Labour and the opposition Conservatives.
The party blends Farage’s longstanding political themes — strong borders, curbing immigration — with policies reminiscent of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration. Farage says he plans “a DOGE for every county,” inspired by Elon Musk’s controversial spending-slashing agency.
“We have a plan,” Farage said. “You bring the auditors in, find out why all this money is being spent on consultants and agency workers, end work from home — boom, gone, done, over.”
The party appeals to many working-class voters who once backed Labour, and to social conservatives long drawn to the Tories. Some Conservatives are already suggesting an electoral pact between the two parties on the right for the next national election, due by 2029.
Farage laughs off the idea, saying that the Conservative Party “will be so small by then it won’t matter.”
The party has momentum, and it showed during Farage’s election walkabout in the Scunthorpe suburb of Ashby with Andrea Jenkyns, Reform’s candidate for mayor of the Greater Lincolnshire region of east-central England. Reform hopes to win the race and also gain hundreds of local council seats and a House of Commons lawmaker on Thursday.
High school students stopped to ask for selfies, while a passing van driver honked and shouted, “Go on, Nigel lad!” Farage has a level of recognition most politicians can only dream of. He also has a phalanx of security guards that is strikingly large for a British politician. In the past, he has been doused with a milkshake and pelted with cement on the campaign trail.
Economic insecurity
Farage found support from local businesspeople, including bakery owner Andrea Blow.
“The last six months has been really hard for small businesses. Everyone’s feeling the pinch,” Blow said, citing the rising cost of ingredients like chocolate and butter, a hike in payroll taxes for employers imposed by the Labour government and hard times in Scunthorpe, a town trying to shake off decades of post-industrial decline.
Scunthorpe’s fate is tied to a hulking British Steel plant that was long the town’s main source of jobs and still employs about 3,000 people. It was under threat of closure by its Chinese owner, Jingye Group, until the Labour government stepped in to pay for supplies of raw materials to keep the steel furnaces running. The plant’s long-term future remains uncertain.
Farage, a lifelong free-marketeer, now advocates nationalizing British Steel on the grounds of protecting jobs and national security. Critics say that’s evidence his views shift with the political winds.
Rival parties are concerned
The rise of Reform worries both Labour and the Conservatives.
Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, said a strong result for Farage’s party on Thursday might scare both Labour and the Conservatives into toughening their stance on immigration and other issues to try to “become Reform-light.”
He said that would be a mistake.
“If we look all around Europe, the idea that you are best off tackling these radical right insurgencies by copying some of their policies and some of their rhetoric isn’t borne out by reality,” Bale said. “If you present people with a copy, they tend to prefer the original.”
A divisive politician
Farage is Reform’s biggest asset, but he also is a divisive figure who has said many migrants come to the U.K. from cultures “alien to ours.”
Critics say Farage stoked tensions by inaccurately suggesting police were withholding information about a stabbing rampage at a dance class that left three children dead in July. False claims that the attacker was an asylum-seeker sparked days of rioting across England.
Reform has also been dogged by some of the infighting associated with the previous parties Farage led, UKIP and the Brexit Party, though it has sought to become a slicker and more professional organization.
Farage’s status as Trump’s most prominent U.K. supporter could also have a downside, since polls suggest the US. president is broadly unpopular in Britain.
Farage distances himself from some Trump policies, including trade tariffs and a desire for the U.S. to make Canada its 51st state.
“I’m a friend of his, and our interests are similar, but they’re not symmetrical,” he said.
His argument that the U.K.’s net-zero carbon emission goals are “lunacy” also could limit Reform’s appeal to younger voters.
“They’re a party that thrives on division,” said 37-year-old Joe Richards, who plans to vote Labour in Scunthorpe and claimed Reform offers simplistic solutions to complex problems. “I don’t trust them as far as I can throw them.”
But another resident, retiree Tyna Ashworth, 71, said she is “willing to give Reform a go.”
“A lot of the politicians, they don’t listen. … They couldn’t live on my pension,” she said. “I’ve worked 50 years for this country, and I’ve worked hard. And I think I deserve to be able to live a decent life.”
