Nickel prices fell on Monday as the dollar strengthened against most major currencies, with traders returning to Federal Reserve policy bets.
Bank forecasts on metals
Goldman Sachs said in a research note published last month that copper prices are expected to remain within a range of 10,000 to 11,000 dollars per metric ton in 2026 and 2027 due to a market surplus, although the long-term outlook for industrial metals remains positive.
The bank pointed to three key factors that could limit the upside potential for copper prices:
Chinese buyers may scale back purchases if prices rise above 11,000 dollars per ton, as occurred in the second quarter of 2024.
A surplus in U.S. inventories, which could quickly help rebalance the market if price spreads on the London Metal Exchange narrow.
An overestimation of data-center-related demand, which may have been lower than initial projections.
Goldman: Indonesian producers’ margins will dictate nickel’s path
On the nickel market, Goldman Sachs said Indonesian producers’ profit margins need to fall further in order to curb supply growth and reverse the ongoing market surplus.
The bank expects nickel prices to decline by 6% to reach 14,500 dollars per metric ton by December 2026.
Aluminum market seen in surplus, with prices returning to current levels only by 2030
The note added that Goldman Sachs expects an aluminum surplus as Indonesian supply begins to rise from mid-2026.
The bank projected aluminum prices at around 2,350 dollars per ton in the fourth quarter of 2026, with prices unlikely to return to current levels before 2030.
China to become net zinc exporter in 2026
Goldman Sachs said China is expected to shift from being a net importer of zinc to a net exporter in 2026, driven by rising domestic production.
The bank said: “We see higher local production in China shifting the country from deficit to surplus, while the market outside China moves into deficit. To balance the global market, Chinese producers will need to be incentivized to export.”
Cobalt supported by tighter supply, new Congo export quotas
In the cobalt market, Goldman Sachs said new export quotas imposed by the Democratic Republic of Congo—which supplies 70% of the metal globally—are likely to lead to a market deficit in 2026, supporting prices amid tightening supply.
Lithium to remain low-priced through 2026 due to supply glut
The bank also projected lithium prices to stay low for longer, with an average price of 8,900 dollars per metric ton in 2026, noting that persistent oversupply will keep the market heavily saturated.
Federal Reserve
Speculation and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy returned to the forefront as concerns grew over the expected size of the rate cut at the upcoming December meeting.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December dropped to 53.6% from 94.4% a month ago, while the probability of holding rates steady rose to 46.4% from 5.5%.
In the same context, Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, said Friday that his concerns about inflation—describing it as “far too hot”—far outweigh the narrower effects of tariffs, in remarks suggesting he may oppose further cuts at the December meeting if policymakers decide to lower short-term borrowing costs again.
Meanwhile, the dollar index rose 0.2% to 99.5 points as of 15:16 GMT, hitting a high of 99.5 and a low of 99.2.
In Monday’s trading, spot nickel prices fell 1.5% to 14,450 dollars per ton as of 15:27 GMT.
