Gold prices declined in the European market on Friday, moving into negative territory under pressure from a fresh surge in the US dollar against a basket of global currencies, ahead of the release of new US jobs data, in addition to the possibility of a Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariff measures.
Despite the pullback, the precious metal is on track to record its first weekly gain of the new year, supported by safe-haven buying amid escalating global geopolitical tensions.
Price Overview
• Gold prices today: gold fell by 0.55% to $4,453.01, from an opening level of $4,477.86, and recorded a session high at $4,484.19.
• At Thursday’s settlement, the precious metal gained 0.5%, marking a fourth gain in the past five sessions, amid rising global geopolitical tensions.
US Dollar
The US Dollar Index rose by 0.15% on Friday, extending gains for the fourth consecutive session and reaching a four-week high, reflecting continued strength in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.
Data released this week showed an unexpected rebound in US services sector activity in December, along with a slight increase in weekly jobless claims, contrary to market expectations.
These figures indicate that the US economy ended 2025 on solid footing, which may give the Federal Reserve more time to assess its next step toward further interest rate cuts.
As a result, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at its meeting later this month declined.
US Interest Rates
• Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran, whose term ends later this month, said on Tuesday that a sharp cut in US interest rates is needed to sustain economic growth.
• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year, said he sees a risk of a sharp rise in the unemployment rate.
• According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, pricing for keeping US interest rates unchanged at the January 2026 meeting currently stands at 86%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is priced at 14%.
• Investors are currently pricing in two US interest rate cuts over the course of next year, while Federal Reserve projections point to a single 25 basis point cut.
• To reprice these expectations, investors are closely monitoring further US economic data.
• The US jobs report for December is due later today and is expected to provide strong evidence on the pace of growth in the world’s largest economy during the final quarter of last year, which was heavily impacted by the longest government shutdown in US history.
Supreme Court
The US Supreme Court may issue a ruling later today on whether President Trump can invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs without congressional approval, a move that could undermine US trade policy and disrupt negotiations with partner countries that have lasted for months.
If the ruling goes against Trump, corporate executives, customs brokers, and trade lawyers could enter legal battles to recover around $150 billion from the US government in previously paid tariffs.
Weekly Trading
Over the course of this week, which officially ends at today’s settlement, gold prices are up by about 2.8%, on track to record the first weekly gain of 2026, supported by strong safe-haven demand amid escalating global geopolitical tensions, especially following the US strike in Venezuela and the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
Gold Outlook
• Independent analyst Ross Norman said gold prices have seen a slight pullback over the past three days due to profit-taking, but the main driver at present is the strength of the US dollar ahead of the nonfarm payrolls data.
• Norman added that many commodity indices are reweighting their exposure to precious metals and gold at the start of the new year, creating some temporary weakness from rebalancing, but overall conditions remain positive.
• HSBC expects gold prices to rise to $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, driven by rising geopolitical risks and debt levels.
SPDR Fund
Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, were unchanged for the second consecutive day yesterday, keeping total holdings steady at 1,067.13 metric tons.
