Pakistan rice exports have recorded a steep downturn amid intensifying international competition and domestic policy headwinds, with industry experts warning that higher costs and a sharp loss of price competitiveness are displacing the country from key export markets.
In July-November period of the fiscal year 2025-26, Pakistan rice exports declined by 40.02% in volume, with shipments of IRRI-6 and IRRI-9 (non-basmati rice) falling by 39.70%, while basmati rice exports dropped by 41.79%, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data showed.
“In the international market, Indian rice is priced lower, while Pakistani rice remains relatively expensive, leading to reduced demand for Pakistan’s rice exports,” Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan’s (REAP) senior vice president Muhammad Javed Jillani told Business Recorder.
“Due to reduced liquidity in the international market, non-basmati rice, which was previously exported at around 550 dollars per ton, was exported this time at around 350 dollars per ton.”
In value terms, rice exports fell even more sharply, declining by 49.24% in dollar terms. Exports of IRRI-6 and IRRI-9 in dollar terms decreased by 53.23%, whereas basmati rice exports registered a decline of 37.58%, as PBS data.
The re-entry of Indian rice into global markets significantly increased supply, exerting downward pressure on international prices and simultaneously displacing Pakistani rice in price-sensitive markets.
During the first five months of the fiscal year 2025-26, the country’s trade deficit increased by over 37% to $15.47 billion from $11.28 billion recorded in the same period last year (SPLY). Exports in 5MFY26 decreased by over 6% to $12.84 billion from $13.72 billion in SPLY.
Arif Habib Commodities CEO Ahsan Mehanti said rice production had declined due to the damage caused by floods.
He further said a decline in soft commodity prices in the international market had also been a major reason for the reduction in Pakistan’s export volume.
According to him, prices of soft commodities have fallen in the international market, while prices of gold and silver increased.
“In the coming period, Pakistan’s export numbers will improve as the effects of the floods subside. Along with this, higher tariff rates imposed on India and dumping accusation of rice in United States by India will benefit Pakistan,” he envisaged.
Meanwhile, Policy Research & Advisory Council (PRAC) Head of Research Dr Usama Ehsan Khan told Business Recorder Pakistan’s rice exports recorded a sharp decline of 56%, falling from $431.37 million in November 2024 to $188.13 million in November 2025.
Elaborating the number Khan said of the total reduction of $243.25 million, detailed decomposition showed that $195.85 million was due to a contraction in export quantities, while $47.40 million resulted from lower international prices.
“This indicates that the decline was driven predominantly by volume losses rather than price effects alone.”
Khan said a key external factor behind the downturn was intensified international competition following India’s removal of restrictions on rice exports.
“The re-entry of Indian rice into global markets significantly increased supply, exerting downward pressure on international prices and simultaneously displacing Pakistani rice in price-sensitive markets.
“Domestic policies have also adversely impacted the exports of rice as well as other sectors. The shift from the Final Tax Regime (FTR) to the Normal Tax Regime (NTR) substantially altered exporters’ cost structures.
“Under the previous FTR, exporters faced a simplified 1% turnover tax, whereas the NTR imposes a 29% corporate income tax, along with up to 10% Super Tax. This abrupt transition sharply compressed exporters’ margins and increased compliance risks, particularly amid widespread concerns over mandatory tax audits and regulatory uncertainty,” Khan said.
In addition, export financing costs in Pakistan rose markedly, with borrowing rates estimated to be around 600 basis points higher than those faced by Indian exporters. Elevated interest rates, combined with higher tax liabilities, significantly weakened Pakistan’s price competitiveness at a time when Indian exporters benefited from subsidised financing and a more supportive policy environment, according to PRAC official.
“Taken together, external competitive pressures and internal policy distortions jointly undermined Pakistan’s rice export performance. Without addressing structural issues related to taxation, financing costs, and regulatory certainty, Pakistan risks continued erosion of its market share in global rice trade, even in periods of stable production.”
Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump recently accused India of “dumping” its shipments into the US market, referring to a practice whereby a product is exported at a price lower than its normal price.
India later rejected US accusations that it was dumping rice in the US, saying its rice exports were primarily premium-grade basmati which typically commands higher prices than non-basmati varieties.
